Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Lisa tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea as of late Nov. 1 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Lisa is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea late Nov. 1. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 210 km (130 miles) east-northeast of Roatan Island, Honduras.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it makes a close approach to Honduras through Nov. 2, passing north of the country. Lisa is likely to make landfall over Belize late Nov. 2 and weaken rapidly as it tracks west across Belize and northern Guatemala through the afternoon of Nov. 3. The storm is forecast to turn northwestward across Mexico's Chiapas and Tabasco states before exiting into the Gulf of Mexico early Nov. 4 and weakening further through Nov. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Nov. 1, authorities have issued the following tropical storm warnings and watches:

Hurricane Warning

• Bay Islands, Honduras

• The coast of Belize

• Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

Tropical Storm Warning

• Entire north coast of Honduras

• North coast of Guatemala

• Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models indicate rainfall of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Mexico's eastern Chiapas and Tabasco states, 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over far southeastern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, northern Honduras, and central Guatemala, and 2.5 cm (1 inch) over portions of the Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua. The rainfall could result in flash flooding, especially across Belize into northern Guatemala and Mexico's far southeastern Yucatan peninsula, eastern Chiapas State, and Tabasco State.

The storm surge will likely raise water levels by up to 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Lisa makes landfall over the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A smaller storm surge of 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) is possible in eastern Yucatan and 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) in the Bay Islands of Honduras. Large and damaging waves will likely follow any surge near the coast. Swells from the storm will probably affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America over the coming days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Belize have closed the Philip S.W. Goldson International Airport (BZE), seaports, and bus transportation. Schools are also closed. Officials have advised the public to avoid travel Nov. 2; only essential services are operational. Authorities have identified evacuation routes out of Belize City to avoid traffic congestion.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center