Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Lisa tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea as of Nov. 2 /update 3

Event

Hurricane Lisa is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea Nov. 2. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (55 miles) east-southeast of Belize City, Belize.

Forecast models indicate the system will maintain Category 1 hurricane strength as it makes landfall over the coast of Belize south of Belize City in the afternoon of Nov. 2. The system is then likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward across central Belize and northern Guatemala late Nov. 2-early Nov. 3. The storm is subsequently forecast to weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks west-northwestward and then northwestward across Tabasco and northeastern Chiapas states in Mexico before exiting into the Bay of Campeche early Nov. 4. The system is then likely to remain a tropical depression as it tracks north-northwestward in the Bay of Campeche Nov. 4-early Nov. 5 before making a sharp turn to the southeast and then south-southeast Nov. 6. The storm is forecast to dissipate as it approaches the coast of western Tabasco State early Nov. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 2, authorities have issued the following hurricane and tropical storm warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• The coast of Belize

• Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

Tropical Storm Warning

• Bay Islands, Honduras

• North coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward

• North coast of Guatemala

• Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models indicate Lisa will bring rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across Belize and northern Guatemala, as well as southern Quintana Roo, southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz states in Mexico, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over far southeastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Campeche State in Mexico, the Bay Islands of Honduras, and central Guatemala. The rainfall could result in flash flooding, especially across Belize and into northern Guatemala and far southeastern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as well as southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz states.

The storm surge will likely raise water levels by up to 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Lisa makes landfall over the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A smaller storm surge of 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) is possible in parts of eastern Yucatan and 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) in the Bay Islands of Honduras. Large and damaging waves will likely follow any surge near the coast. Swells from the storm will probably affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America over the coming days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Belize have closed the Philip S.W. Goldson International Airport (BZE), seaports, and bus transportation. Schools are also closed. Officials have advised the public to avoid travel Nov. 2; only essential services are operational. Authorities have identified evacuation routes out of Belize City to avoid traffic congestion and evacuation shelters have been established across the country.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center