03 Nov 2022 | 04:54 AM UTC
Central America: Tropical Storm Lisa tracking westward over western Orange Walk District, Belize, as of late Nov. 2 /update 4
TS Lisa tracking westward over western Orange Walk District, Belize, late Nov. 2 following landfall near Belize City.
Event
Tropical Storm Lisa is tracking westward over the western Orange Walk District, Belize, late Nov. 2 following landfall near Belize City earlier in the evening. As of 22:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 95 km (60 miles) west of Belize City, Belize.
Forecast models indicate the system will weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks generally west-northwestward across far northern Guatemala then Tabasco State in Mexico before exiting into the Bay of Campeche early Nov. 4. The system is then likely to remain a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward in the Bay of Campeche Nov. 4-early Nov. 5 before making a sharp turn to the east and then south-southeast late Nov. 5-Nov. 6, dissipating the evening of Nov. 6. No further landfall is forecast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Nov. 2, authorities have issued the following hurricane and tropical storm warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning
The coast of Belize
Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico
Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Forecast models indicate Lisa will bring rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across Belize and northern Guatemala, as well as southern Quintana Roo, southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz states in Mexico, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over far southeastern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and south-central Campeche State in Mexico, the Bay Islands of Honduras, and central Guatemala. The rainfall could result in flash flooding, especially across Belize and into northern Guatemala and far southeastern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, as well as southern Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz states.
The storm surge will likely raise water levels by up to 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Nov. 2. Large and damaging waves will likely follow any surge near the coast. Swells from the storm will probably affect portions of Central America through Nov. 3 and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Authorities in Belize have declared a state of emergency for Belize and Stann Creek districts indefinitely. The Philip S.W. Goldson International Airport (BZE), seaports, and bus transportation are closed until conditions improve. Schools are also closed. Officials have advised the public to avoid travel; only essential services are operational. Authorities have identified evacuation routes out of Belize City to avoid traffic congestion and evacuation shelters have been established across the country. Reports indicate that much of Belize City is without power and water due to damage to infrastructure.
Authorities in Guatemala have confirmed that flooding has impacted around 95 people in Melchor de Menchos and moderately damaged some structures.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
