Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Nov. 4 /update 192

Event

Military operations are continuing in several eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of Nov. 4. Ukrainian forces are continuing their offensive in Luhansk Region with repeated attacks reported toward Kreminna and Svatove, though with limited territorial gain in recent days. Russian forces are still focusing their offensive efforts in Donetsk Region launching regular attacks against Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City; these attacks continue to be repulsed by Ukrainian defenders.

The evacuation of Kherson city is proceeding, with reports suggesting Russian flags have been removed from administrative buildings and several checkpoints are no longer manned. Ukrainian authorities have warned the apparent exit of Russian forces in the region could actually be a trap for advancing Ukrainian troops; combat remains ongoing along the front line north and west of the city. Nonetheless, Russian authorities are preparing defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnieper River. Moreover, Russian-backed organizations, administrators, and collaborators are relocating eastward to a new "regional capital" in Henichesk on the Sea of Azov as of Nov. 4 - a move that is not only indicative of the Kremlin's intent to pull back troops from west of the Dnieper, but would also leave room for future withdrawals further eastward should the operational situation eventually warrant it. Specific information regarding territorial control along the front line in Kherson remains unclear, however.

Martial law is in force in the four Russian-annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. While Russian authorities do not control the entirety of any of these four regions, the martial law edict gives regional leaders potentially sweeping powers, including taking control of transport and communications infrastructure and temporarily resettling civilians.

Disruptions and Shortages
Moscow has been conducting a campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes on critical infrastructure nationwide, with the most recent wave of attacks occurring Oct. 31. Ukrainian authorities have stated that the situation is precarious with around one-third of power stations damaged leaving approximately 4.5 million citizens without power. Ukrenergo, the national power company, is implementing periodic restrictions on energy consumption impacting specific regions in order to stabilize the grid or carry out repairs. Rolling four-hour blackouts are in effect in the city of Kyiv as part of energy restrictions; similar measures are likely in Kyiv Region and other impacted regions as part of future measures. These are in addition to short-notice disruptions to energy and water supplies as a result of damage to infrastructure immediately following Russian airstrikes. Electricity rationing and blackouts, in addition to interruptions to water supplies, will likely continue in the coming days.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Following a series of battlefield setbacks, the posture of Russian forces in some areas appears to be weakening, particularly in Kharkiv Region and northern parts of Kherson Region. Much will depend on the division of Ukrainian forces between continuing offensive action and consolidating territorial gains. Russian forces will likely seek to establish an effective defensive posture amid coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Recent civilian evacuations and restrictions of telecommunications services in Kherson indicate Moscow may be creating the information conditions to prepare for a full military withdrawal from west of the Dnieper River, including Kherson city, in the face of the recent Ukrainian advance. Evacuated civilians could be rehoused in areas near a subsequently established defensive line to deter further Ukrainian attacks.

Moscow's forces likely lack the combat potential in fresh reserves and equipment to mount an effective counterattack in the short term. As a result, the Kremlin has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways to intimidate Ukraine and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes the increase in airstrikes targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine and escalating nuclear rhetoric from Russian officials. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu contacted defense ministers of several NATO countries Oct. 23 claiming Ukraine planned to detonate a so-called "dirty bomb," a conventional explosive which contains and would disperse radioactive material. Ukrainian officials denounce this claim and state that it could be Russian preparation for a similar attack of their own. Shoigu's allegations are likely another example of attempting to reduce international support for Ukraine, and the rhetoric does not necessarily indicate an increased threat of deliberate nuclear escalation.

Despite significant changes on the battlefield in recent weeks, the prospect of a nonmilitary solution to the conflict being sought by either side continues to appear distant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree Oct. 4 ruling out the possibility of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This follows Russia's formal annexation of the four partially Russian-occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia's legislature ratified the annexation Oct. 3. The move follows supposed referendums carried out by separatist officials in those regions Sept. 23-27; international governments criticized the referendums as shams carried out under extreme coercion and refuse to recognize the annexations. Official annexation gives the Kremlin a possible excuse to escalate hostilities by claiming Ukrainian military operations in those regions as attacks on sovereign Russian territory.

The partial mobilization called by Putin Sept. 21 could bring an estimated 300,000 reservists to the frontlines in the next few months. However, neither Moscow nor Kyiv will likely be able to achieve their overall objectives before winter sets in, which will exacerbate the human, equipment, and logistics factors and further constrain operations.

Despite setbacks elsewhere, Russian troops will likely continue with limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors in the short-to-medium term as the goal of capturing the entire Donbas will remain a key objective for the Kremlin.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service