07 Nov 2022 | 10:53 AM UTC
Atlantic Ocean: Subtropical Storm Nicole forms northeast of the Bahamas and tracking north-northwestwards early Nov. 7
STS Nicole tracking north-northwestwards in the North Atlantic Ocean early Nov. 7. Forecast to pass over the far northern Bahamas Nov. 9.
Event
Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed in the North Atlantic Ocean and is tracking north-northwestward in the Sargasso Sea early Nov. 7. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 895 km (555 miles) east of the northwestern Bahamas.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen as it tracks northwestward then west-northwestward over the Sargasso Sea Nov. 7-8. The storm is expected to strengthen further as it turns to track west-southwestward Nov. 8 and will likely reach hurricane strength before passing over the northern Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas Nov. 9. The system is forecast to weaken slightly and as it tracks west-northwestward over the far northern Bahamas late Nov. 9 before making a further landfall over the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula early Nov. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken overland as it tracks northwestward over the central Florida Peninsula Nov. 10 and may briefly emerge into the Gulf of Mexico off the northwest coast of the Florida Peninsula late Nov. 10-early Nov. 11, before turning to track northeastward over northern Florida and southeastern Georgia Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 05:00 AST Nov. 7, authorities have issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern Bahamas. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by late Nov. 8-early Nov. 9. Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across the northwestern Bahamas Nov. 8-10. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds. Rainfall from the storm system is forecast to impact parts of Florida and the southeastern US from around Nov. 9-11.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
