Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Nicole tracking westward and approaching the northwestern Bahamas Nov. 9 /update 3

Event

Tropical Storm Nicole is tracking westward in the North Atlantic Ocean Nov. 9. As of 10:00 EST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 40 km (25 miles) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall over Central Abaco District in the coming hours. The system is forecast to strengthen slightly and could become a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward then northwestward over Grand Bahama Island before making landfall over the eastern coast of the Florida Peninsula near Port St. Lucie in the early hours of Nov. 10. The storm is forecast to weaken overland as it tracks northwestward over the central Florida Peninsula Nov. 10 and may briefly emerge into the Gulf of Mexico off the northwest coast of the Florida Peninsula before turning to track north-northeastward over northern Florida late Nov. 10. The storm expected to weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward over southern and central Georgia early Nov. 11, before turning to the northeast and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks rapidly across the eastern US Nov. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days. Nicole is producing a large wind field and hazards are likely to extend a great distance from the center of circulation, especially to the north of the forecast path.

As of 10:00 EST Nov. 9, authorities have issued the following coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm:

Hurricane Warning

• The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas

• Boca Raton to the Flagler-Volusia County Line, Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

• Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas

• Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida

• Flagler-Volusia County Line, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

• North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, Florida

• Lake Okeechobee

Storm Surge Warning

• North Palm Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

• Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, Florida

• Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River, Florida

Hurricane Watch

• Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton, Florida

• Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch

• South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef, Florida

Storm Surge Watch

• Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass. Florida

• South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach, Florida

• Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours and days.

Hurricane conditions will spread westward in areas of the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area late Nov. 9 and are expected along the coast of Florida in the hurricane warning area late Nov. 9-early Nov. 10 and are also possible in the hurricane watch area from late Nov. 9. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the northwestern Bahamas and portions of the east coast of Florida and will extend northward within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina Nov. 9-10.

Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations through Nov. 11 of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) across the northwestern Bahamas and into eastern, central, and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula; 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) for Southeast US into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio; and 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds. Storm surge ranging from 0.3-1.5 meters (1-5 feet) is also possible for parts of the east coast of Florida northward along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina as far as Surf City in North Carolina. Tornadoes are possible from late Nov. 9 through Nov. 10 in parts of eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern Carolina. Large swells generated by Nicole are expected to affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern US coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in the Bahamas have opened numerous shelters across the country in preparation for the storm and advised residents in Grand Bahama and Abaco to take shelter or evacuate any low-lying areas or compromised structures. Authorities have evacuated dozens of residents from Sweeting's Cay and Guana Cay. Schools and government offices, except for essential services, are closed on Abaco, Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama until the all-clear is given by authorities. Airports and sea ports on the affected islands are expected to be closed when wind speeds reach 40 knots. Lynden Pindling International Airport (NAS) in Nassau is open and operating as of Nov. 9; however, authorities have warned that airline schedules may vary. Bahamas Power and Light have suspended electricity disconnections in islands subject to storm warnings.

In Florida, authorities declared a state of emergency for 34 counties Nov. 7 and President Biden approved an emergency declaration affecting 45 of the state's 67 counties Nov. 8 ahead of the approach of the storm. Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for parts of Palm Beach and Volusia counties and voluntary evacuations for Brevard, Indian River, Martin, St. Johns, and St. Lucie counties. Further evacuation orders may be issued by authorities in the coming hours and days. At least five counties have closed all schools Nov. 9-10 and shelters are being established in many parts of the state. Several airports in central and southern Florida have announced that operations will be suspended due to the approach of the storm, including:

• Orlando International Airport (MCO) will be closed from 16:00 Nov. 9

• Melbourne Orlando International Airport (MLB) will be closed from 14:00 Nov. 9

• Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB) will be closed from 16:00 Nov. 9

• Palm Beach International Airport (PBI) has closed from 09:00 Nov. 9

• Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) will be closed from 12:30 Nov. 9

Other airports in affected areas could announce closures in the coming hours as the storm approaches,

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center