Poland: Explosion in Przewodow prompts heightened security, Nov. 16 /update 1

Event

Authorities continue to investigate an explosion in Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, Nov. 16. Missile wreckage was found at the scene; the explosions killed two people and damaged a farm. Investigations will likely continue at the incident site. There will likely be heightened security and local travel disruptions.

The explosion or explosions occurred Nov. 15, at the same time as a wave of Russian missile strikes targeted cities and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. Prezwodow is 6 km (4 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Initial reports indicated that the blast was caused by Russian missiles. On Nov. 16, US and NATO authorities stated that the damage was likely caused by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles. This message was reinforced by US President Joe Biden, who added that the missile was unlikely to have originated in Russia.

Authorities in Poland have increased their security posture. Polish-Ukrainian border crossings were closed for several hours following the missile strike on Nov. 15. As of Nov. 16 they are open, with lengthy queues leaving Ukraine, particularly at the Krakovets and Rawa Ruska crossings. There are reports of local power supply interruptions, which are affecting local services.

The Polish government has raised the alert posture of its military and will likely deploy increased troops to the border region. Large numbers of NATO, including US, forces, are also based in Poland.

There is currently no impact on civilian flight operations across Poland; however, some disruption cannot be ruled out.

Context

Polish authorities and NATO will continue to hold emergency talks, Nov. 16. This is the first reported incident of military damage in Poland since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Feb. 24: political tension will remain high, especially in the lack of clarity over the origin and causes of the missile impact. Russia has also claimed that the damage was caused by Ukrainian missiles. Misinformation and speculation is highly likely on social media platforms. Whilst NATO is highly likely to contain this incident and avoid any form of conflict escalation with Russia, increased military support to Poland and Ukraine are possible.

Advice

Expect heightened security across Poland and particularly in border regions. Security around government buildings and military bases will likely be extremely high. Expect military maneuvers and troop movements. Avoid the area of the incident in coming days; follow local travel and security instructions. Expect ongoing disruptions and delays at border crossings.