Pakistan: TTP Pakistan declares end of ceasefire Nov. 28

Event

Leaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have called off a ceasefire with Pakistani security forces effective Nov. 28. TTP leaders also exhorted their members to carry out attacks across the nation in retaliation to security operations in the Lakki Marwat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

Pakistani officials may initiate and/or intensify security operations targeting the TTP, mainly in rural areas of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Disruptive measures in affected areas usually include temporary localized curbs on inbound and outbound travel, local business operations, public movement, and telecommunication services. A spike in militant attacks is possible; the TTP typically targets Pakistani security forces in small-scale bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings in its stronghold areas. Other potential target sites with tight security include places of worship, crowded markets and transport hubs, as well as government and diplomatic buildings. Large attacks involving mass casualties are unlikely in major cities, but cannot be ruled out. Any attacks involving civilian casualties may prompt protests such as roadblocks, shutdown strikes, and sit-ins. Localized transport and business disruptions, as well as skirmishes may occur during such demonstrations.

Context

A high terror risk continues across Pakistan. The TTP, which is an organizationally distinct group from the Afghan Taliban, has been fighting an insurgency against Pakistani forces in Pashtun-dominated areas of northwest Pakistan along the Afghan frontier since at least 2007. Recurrent ceasefire agreements have been reached during ongoing negotiations between Pakistani officials and TTP factions to end the longstanding conflict. However, the talks have stalled in recent months over contentious issues such as the release of TTP prisoners, surrendering of weapons, and frequent breaches of the truce. The Taliban administration in Afghanistan, which has longstanding ties to Pakistani intelligence and security agencies, may attempt to encourage a negotiated settlement to the TTP insurgency to improve internal stability and strengthen its relationship with Islamabad.

Advice

Exercise caution around sensitive sites as a standard security precaution. Heed all security and travel advisories.