Iran: Demonstrations and strikes will almost certainly persist nationwide into late December despite authorities' violent crackdown. /update 12

Event

As of Dec. 3, demonstrations in Iran are showing no signs of abating and are increasingly becoming violent, particularly in Sistan va Balochistan, Khuzestan, and Kurdistan provinces. Authorities continue to use live ammunition in response to protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in custody for allegedly violating the country's dress code in mid-September. Security forces appear to be particularly prone to deploying lethal force in Kurdish, Balochi, Arab, and Azeri cities and towns. Beyond a violent crackdown in Kurdistan Province, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been conducting airstrikes in Iraqi Kurdistan against Iranian Kurdish separatist groups for allegedly fomenting the civil unrest engulfing Iran.

Given that authorities have failed to meet the protesters' demands, demonstrations and labor strikes demanding gender equality as well as social and economic reforms will almost certainly continue through late December. The commander of the IRGC has issued a warning to protesters, demanding that they stop taking to the streets. The warning from the IRGC commander is almost certainly a further indication of authorities' plans to perpetrate violence against the demonstrators. Human rights organizations assert that nearly 500 protesters, including dozens of children, have been killed and hundreds of others wounded during the unrest.

Civil unrest has occurred in nearly 200 cities across the country, including in Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Karaj, Tabriz, Ahvaz, and Shiraz. The government has also frequently imposed internet restrictions in an effort to hamper activists' ability to mobilize support.

Labor organizations have begun a series of strikes to demand justice and demonstrate solidarity with the protesters. In early October, oil workers demonstrated in Abadan and Asaluyeh in solidarity with the protest movement. Steelworkers in Kerman announced Oct. 30 that they would go on strike. Further protests and strikes by oil and gas workers remain likely unless authorities end their crackdown and address the issues that have prompted the unrest. Additionally, university students' demonstrations continue in Tehran and elsewhere in the country.

Moreover, Iran's Kurdish region has launched periodic general strikes. Stores and businesses in 15 Kurdish cities, including Sanandaj, Mahabad, Piranshahr, and Bukan, shut down operations in early October to protest the government's bombing of dissident groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Tehran has accused exiled Iranian-Kurdish groups in Iraq of fomenting the ongoing demonstrations in Iran.

Security forces have resorted to using live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannon to disperse protesters. Authorities have also arrested thousands of people and continue to detain activists in an attempt to subdue the civil unrest. Against this backdrop, Iran's security agencies could also increase their surveillance and harassment of foreign visitors to the country.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture in major cities until the protests abate. Security forces may respond forcefully - including using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges - to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Officials may tighten internet service restrictions in areas of the country with high protest activity over the coming days.

Context

The protests initially broke out in mid-September in direct response to the death of Amini, a Kurdish woman, while in the custody of Iran's Gasht-e-Ershad or morality police; Amini was charged with violating the nation's laws requiring women to wear hijabs and head scarfs. However, the movement has essentially evolved into a national revolt against the Iranian government and its security apparatus, with Amini's death becoming a rallying cry for millions of Iranians who are demanding that authorities abolish the Gasht-e-Ershad, among other reforms.

Since the start of the protest campaign, the white-and-green vehicles used by the morality police have reportedly stopped patrolling the streets of Tehran. However, it is unlikely that authorities will introduce serious social and political reforms, including relaxing the country's dress code.

Additionally, while the demonstrations have shown no sign of abating, the government's coercive power and capacity remain significant. Authorities can deploy the Iranian Artesh or regular army, as well as the IRGC. The regime could also deploy the Basij, Iran's Organization for the Mobilization of the Oppressed (Sazeman-e Basij-e Mostazafen). The Basij was established in April 1980 with the express purpose of suppressing dissidents and putting down domestic social unrest.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Iran until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all large gatherings and areas where security forces have deployed. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.