Fiji: Increased security ongoing nationwide after opposition parties agree to form coalition government Dec. 23 /update 2

Event

Authorities are bolstering security across Fiji as of Dec. 23 after the country’s third general elections resulted in a hung parliament. Three opposition parties, including the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), People’s Alliance (PA), and National Federation Party (NFP) have agreed to form a coalition government Dec. 20, but incumbent prime minister Bainimarama has yet to concede defeat and recall parliament for lawmakers to vote on the new prime minister.

Enhanced security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. Political parties and their supporters could hold gatherings over the coming days, particularly if there are prolonged delays in forming the new government. Any arrest or charges against opposition candidates, as well as signs the incumbent FijiFirst party may not accept the election results if it fails to form the government, could lead to civil unrest. If protests materialize, the largest gatherings could draw hundreds of participants, especially in the capital Suva and in opposition strongholds. Likely protest venues include outside election offices, government, and court buildings, or local political party offices. Localized traffic disruptions are probable in the event of large demonstrations, or if protesters conduct mass marches or block local or intercity routes. Authorities will likely deploy police and military personnel to monitor related gatherings. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators or between rival political groups cannot be ruled out during any action.

Context

The vote was Fiji's third general election since the 2006 coup led by incumbent Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama. As of Dec. 22, Bainimarama has deployed the military to maintain order, citing concerns about ethnic tensions and violence between the Indo-Fijian minority and the indigenous iTaukei. Ethnic tensions have been a long-standing issue in Fiji and have contributed to previous military coups. Nevertheless, such tensions have been reduced in recent years due to government efforts to address the issue, including the abolition of a voting system that favored indigenous Fijians through constitutional reform in 2013. Additionally, past coups d'état and the 2013 constitutional right allowing for military intervention have raised fears of another military takeover, though the Fiji army has stated that it will not intervene. The opposition has also accused the military mobilization as part of Bainimarama's efforts to remain in power. It is likely that political uncertainty and tension will remain high in the coming weeks.

Advice

Exercise caution around election offices, government and court buildings, political party offices, and other likely protest sites. Monitor local media or check with trusted local sources for updates on possible post-election demonstrations and associated disruptions, as events could take place with no or little warning. Avoid any protests that may materialize following the vote due to the potential for clashes.