Benin: Legislative elections to take place Jan. 8

Event

Political gatherings are likely nationwide ahead of the legislative elections slated for Jan. 8; the election campaign is running from Dec. 23-Jan. 6. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers such as Cotonou and Porto Novo, particularly near political party headquarters and public places, and major thoroughfares. Thousands of security personnel will likely deploy to secure polling sites, notably in northern areas prone to militant violence.

Demonstrations will likely be well attended, along with an increased security presence, likely causing road traffic and business disruptions in the vicinity. Clashes with security forces or opposing rival activists are possible. Claims of fraud in the aftermath of the results may also inflame tensions. Due to the security situation in northern Benin, an attack against a gathering or an electoral facility cannot be ruled out.

Context

Tensions during electoral periods are recurrent in Benin. In 2019, a political crisis related to a controversial reform of the electoral system erupted following the legislative elections, prompting nationwide protests for several months. The security crackdown reportedly killed several people, with security forces resorting to lethal weaponry. The demonstrations caused major disruptions along the Cotonou-Tchaourou-Parakou axis. Similar protests took place in 2021 to demand the president's departure ahead of the presidential election; at least one person was killed in a demonstration dispersed by the army in Save (central Benin).

Les Démocrates opposition party was initially barred from running for the upcoming 2023 election, raising concerns over possible political unrest to denounce what would have been perceived as unlawful. However, the constitutional court ordered the electoral commission to accept a reshuffled list of candidates. The 2023 legislative campaign is therefore expected to pass off peacefully.

Advice

Allow extra time for travel amid the election period. Avoid political gatherings due to possible clashes and polling stations on election day. If violence occurs nearby, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernment building. Heed all official traffic and security advisories.