Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of March 23 /update 213

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of March 23. Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area. The overall tempo of Russian ground attacks remains reduced from the previous week, when Ukrainian officials indicated on March 15 they were facing around 33 assaults per day, down from around 100.

Bakhmut remains a focal point of the conflict; intense combat is ongoing though Russian offensive activity continues to reduce. Ukrainian forces remain committed to defending the city and were able to launch limited counterattacks in the northwestern and southwestern outskirts. However, the defenders remain under considerable pressure, with Russian forces making gradual advances from the south and attempting to expand the encirclement to the northwest. Ukrainian forces likely remain in control of the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostantyankivka Highway following counterattacks around March 19, but the route is in artillery range of Russian forces, limiting its utility for resupply or retreat.

Elsewhere in Donetsk Region, Russian forces have intensified pressure on Avdiivka by stepping up assaults on several satellite towns with the likely ultimate goal of encircling Avdiivka. Ukrainian officials claim to have repulsed attacks in several locations, including Krasnohorivka, Stepove, Lastochkyne, and Vodyane. Russian offensive activity is reduced around Vuhledar.

Active combat also continues in Luhansk Region along the front line stretching between Svatove and Bilohorivka. Both sides are engaged in positional battles; Russian forces are carrying out the majority of ground offensive activity but have not taken any significant territory. The city of Kharkiv continues to be targeted in artillery fire on a near-daily basis. Similarly, artillery exchanges have continued between the opposing sides across the front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, but major ground assaults are unlikely in the immediate term.

Moscow is continuing its campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine. The latest mass missile attack was on March 22 when Russia launched 48 airstrikes; 21 of these utilized Shaheed drones, of which Ukrainian officials claim to have shot down 16. Drones reportedly struck an educational facility in Rzhyshchiv, approximately 60 km (37 miles) south of Kyiv, killing nine; a missile struck a residential block in Zaporizhzhia, killing at least one.

Explosions were reported in Dzhankoi, in Russian-occupied Crimea, March 20. Dzhankoi is an important rail and logistics hub for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian military intelligence claimed the explosions destroyed a shipment of Russian Kalbir cruise missiles, but Kyiv has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack. Russian officials claimed to have repelled a maritime drone attack on Sevastopol on March 22, reportedly involving three USVs.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking an operationally important city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in numerous Russian casualties. Nonetheless, Ukrainian commanders state they are coming under increased pressure as Russian attacks continue. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to attrite Moscow's forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from locations subject to significant Russian pressure, should that become necessary.

Reports indicate that Russian reinforcements continue to arrive in the Luhansk Region, and Moscow will likely seek to step up counterattacks in this area to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly around Kreminna. Lacking the combat potential - particularly heavy equipment - to mount a major offensive in the short term, Russia will likely rely on amassing regular troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian offensive action in the region has largely stalled northwest and west of Kreminna, as well as on approaches to Svatove, but limited ground assaults will almost certainly continue in the days to come.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, as well as disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel repeated drone attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions. Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions have escalated in recent weeks. Although a major offensive does not appear imminent, limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.