Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of March 31 /update 214

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of March 31. Ground combat, artillery bombardments, and air and missile strikes are largely focused near the frontlines in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions. Russian ground assaults have increased from the previous week; Ukrainian officials report roughly 60-80 attacks per day have taken place in the combat zone. Over the past week, Russian forces have launched up to 25 airstrikes per day, but sometimes as few as five, against Ukrainian positions, strategic sites, and infrastructure. Russian multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) bombardments of Ukrainian positions and frontline towns typically number 30-50 attacks per day.

The heaviest combat continues to be reported in Bakhmut, in the Donetsk Region, where Russian forces have occupied the city's eastern, northern, and southern portions. However, Russian advances have stalled, and the tempo of Russian assaults has decreased, with only incremental gains reported in recent days. Ukrainian troops conducted limited counterattacks on March 26-27 in a likely effort to secure improved defensive positions to ensure a protracted defense of the city. However, the defenders remain under considerable pressure, with Russian forces making gradual advances from the south and attempting to expand the encirclement of Bakhmut to the northwest.

Elsewhere in the Donetsk Region, Russian forces continue to conduct ground assaults on towns north and south of Avdiivka, with the likely ultimate goal of encircling the city. Combat in Mariinka and around Vuhledar continues to be reported without any territory changing hands. The tempo of attacks in each of these areas remains consistent with the previous week.

Combat operations also continue in parts of the Luhansk Region, particularly in the Kreminna-Ploschanka area, as well as on approaches to the Ukrainian-held town of Lyman. There are no confirmed advances, as Ukrainian forces successfully repel most attacks. Further north, in the Kharkiv Region, Russian forces continue to launch limited attacks on several settlements around Dvorichna. Heavy shelling and MLRS fire continue to strike Kupyansk and surrounding towns.

The outskirts of Kharkiv continue to be targeted in artillery fire on a near-daily basis. Similarly, towns on the international border between Ukraine's Kharkiv and Sumy regions and Russia continue to suffer artillery bombardments. Russian forces struck the towns of Krasnopillia, Bilopillia, and Seredyno-Buda in the Sumy Region on March 30, injuring one person. Ukrainian forces typically respond with artillery fire into Russia's Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Artillery exchanges have continued between the opposing sides across the front lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, but major ground assaults are unlikely in the immediate term.

Context

As wintry conditions become less severe, Russian offensive activity will likely continue to slowly increase in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and the likelihood of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive grows. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in numerous Russian casualties. While Ukrainian forces are likely also taking casualties and losing equipment, they are likely less severe than those of Russia. Additionally, Ukrainian equipment losses are increasingly replaced by advanced Western weaponry and equipment, though likely not yet in sufficient quantities to launch major counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian forces will likely seek to attrite Moscow's forces as much as possible before eventually withdrawing from locations subject to significant Russian pressure, should that become necessary.

Russia's spring conscription period began on March 30. Russia typically conducts two rounds of conscription per year, drafting roughly 134,000 men. Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest decree authorizes the drafting of up to 147,000 men. However, they are unlikely to appear in the combat zones of Ukraine. Russian conscripts must undergo months of training before being considered combat-ready, and Russian officials and civil society previously engaged in rare public opposition to Putin's regime following conscript deaths in 2022.

Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia's plan to plunge Ukraine into an extensive blackout failed; therefore, Moscow is returning to the tactics used in the first days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Their targets during future mass missile and drone attacks might increasingly include strategic sites, such as military facilities and routes for the supply of Western weapons, including train stations and rail hubs.

Ukrainian estimates of Russian missile stockpiles continue to suggest that their number is decreasing. However, Russian domestic missile production continues, and Russia has increasingly repurposed S-300 and anti-ship missiles for ground attacks. Additionally, in recent barrages, Russia has launched older, Soviet-era cruise missiles, such as the Kh-55, without payloads in a likely effort to trigger Ukrainian air defenses. Additionally, Moscow continues to launch Iranian Shahed-136 drones, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel these attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions continue to escalate. Although a major offensive does not appear imminent, limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.