The protests and blockades by truckers and their supporters that are occurring throughout Canada are likely to end in the coming days, following actions by local, provincial, and federal authorities to stop them, but similar disruptive demonstrations may become more frequent in the near future. Enforcement of the recently invoked Emergencies Act will require some time, which may allow the protests in Ottawa to remain in place for some days, but officials hope to prevent similar protests elsewhere.
While most Canadians oppose the protests, the demonstrators have proven that only a few dozen trucks are enough to block major highways and disrupt binational commerce. Supporters of the truckers’ cause abroad have taken note, replicating them in multiple locations with increasing risks for governments and businesses.
Impacts of Canada's Protests
The protesters in Canada have successfully caused major disruptions in several parts of the country. Thousands of protesters, many of them with trucks and other large vehicles, blocked multiple roads in downtown Ottawa beginning Jan. 28 to demonstrate their opposition to the requirement that truckers be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in order to enter the US and return to Canada, as well as to demand the end of all COVID-19-related restrictions. Some protesters have even called for the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
While many of the demonstrators have since dispersed, hundreds remain, affecting businesses and residents in the city center and forcing the closure of government offices. Similar protests have appeared in other areas, blocking border crossings in Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba, and British Columbia. While most of these crossings have reopened, the protests affected cross-border supply chains, forcing the temporary closure of auto factories in the US. Some estimates indicate that for every day the border crossing between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, Michigan was closed, Canada’s economy lost CAD 500 million, and the US auto industry lost USD 50 million.
Canadian Authorities’ Response
Recent moves by authorities to use emergency powers are likely to bring the current wave of demonstrations to an end. Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act on Feb. 14 for the first time since the Act passed in 1988. The powers granted by the Act will be in effect for 30 days, as Parliament is unlikely to revoke them given the support Trudeau has received from the ruling Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party. Under the Emergencies Act, authorities could place severe restrictions on movement within the country in order to prevent additional truck drivers from joining the protests and disperse protests if they believe there is a reasonable likelihood they will become violent.
Additionally, the Emergencies Act gives officials regulatory powers that help them cut financial assistance to the demonstrators and freeze the bank accounts of those protesting. The invocation of these measures did not deter most of the protesters in Ottawa, who have remained in place and will be forcefully removed by police but may be successful in discouraging similar disruptive demonstrations in the near term.
Global Ramifications
Even if the protests in Canada end, opponents of vaccine mandates and COVID-19-related restrictions worldwide have viewed the protests in Canada as a template to cause significant disruptions in their own countries. The protests have shown that mass popular support is not needed to bring parts of the economy to a halt and attract the attention of national authorities; over 70 percent of Canadians have expressed opposition to the protests, and approximately 90 percent of Canadian truckers are vaccinated.
However, in Windsor, only around 75 trucks suspended binational commerce for five days. Similar protests have already occurred in France, Belgium, and New Zealand. A large truck convoy in the US is also being planned. Although details have not yet been formally announced, protest organizers have suggested that the convoy will travel across the country, departing from California and arriving in Washington, DC, in early March.
Such protests could add further strain to already overburdened supply chains, causing additional shipping delays across a variety of industries. A harsh response by Canadian authorities to end the current demonstrations could lead to new and multiple solidarity protests within the country and around the world, with significant effects on global supply chains.
Near-Term Outlook
The truckers’ protests have caused major disruptions in multiple locations in Canada, with significant economic impact since they started in late January. While the current protests may be coming to an end, similar demonstrations may become more common in Canada and around the world, given their effectiveness and the few people required for the protest to have an impact. This raises the possibility of unrest that causes major economic disruption and supply chain issues wherever truckers are willing to engage in such protests.
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