Major protests have been occurring throughout Colombia since late April, leaving more than 40 people dead, and hundreds of vehicles, businesses, and government offices damaged or destroyed throughout most major metropolitan areas.
While the size of the protests, and the violence associated with them, has been steadily decreasing in recent days, the numerous issues that sparked the protests appear unlikely to be resolved in the short term, thus making the likelihood of protests recurring in the coming months high.
The demonstrations were initially in reaction to a tax reform bill sponsored by President Iván Duque’s administration; although the bill was withdrawn from Congress days after the protests began, unions, student organizations, and opposition political parties remained mobilized nationwide in demand for solutions for long-standing problems, such as poverty and inequality, both of which have been exacerbated by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, the response of the military and police to the protests, which has prompted condemnation from international human rights organizations, has also become a major object of public anger.
Factors Affecting Negotiations
Representatives of Duque’s administration and the leaders of the demonstrations, gathered in the umbrella organization National Strike Committee (Comité Nacional de Paro), have held several meetings in recent days, but so far, agreements between the parties have been minimal.
The government wants protesters to lift the dozens of roadblocks built in major highways across the country as a first step for negotiations, while protest leaders want guarantees to be allowed to protest peacefully and a reform of the way security forces handle the demonstrations.
Even if initial agreements are reached and tensions start to deescalate by late May, the long-standing problems that created the conditions for the protests are unlikely to be solved in the coming months.
Colombia’s economy has been significantly affected by the pandemic, with GDP declining 6.8 percent in 2020, and while the country saw signs of recovery early in 2021, a new wave of infections that is currently ongoing, a slow vaccination rollout, and the protest movement itself are likely to dampen economic growth in the rest of the year.
Additionally, comprehensive agreements with protesters or reforms such as those demanded by demonstrators will be hard to achieve with Duque in office. Duque’s approval ratings have been affected by the handling of the pandemic and the current protests, and with presidential and congressional elections (in which Duque cannot participate) in the first half of 2022, political alliances will be hard to build for his administration.
Protesters have also little confidence in the government due to previous failed negotiations; following a similar protest movement in late 2019, the government held a series of meetings and negotiations with demonstrators, but these ultimately fell short of achieving any significant reform.
Implications for Future Political Events
While this round of protests is likely to slowly come to its end in the coming weeks, the government’s difficulty in building alliances, as well as the lack of trust it inspires in protesters, will ensure a high likelihood of renewed protests and strikes through the coming months, any one of which could spark another round of major unrest.
The protest movement is also likely to influence next year’s elections, which are likely to see levels of polarization even higher than those in recent electoral processes; conservatives are likely to push for stronger measures to reduce the impact of demonstrations and punish acts of vandalism, while left-wing movements are likely to demand major transformations to the country’s institutions, including calls for a new constitution.
Related Intelligence Alerts
21 May 2021 | 09:37 AM UTC | Critical | Colombia: Nationwide protests and strikes to continue through at least the end of May /update 7
17 May 2021 | 07:00 PM UTC | Critical | Colombia: Nationwide protests and strikes to continue through late May /update 6
10 May 2021 | 03:07 PM UTC | Critical | Colombia: Nationwide protests and strikes likely to continue through at least mid-May /update 5
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