Conditions in South Africa Remain Tense after Recent Unrest

Ongoing unrest in Gauteng and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces lead to several infrastructure and business damages.

Recent unrest after the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma leaves provinces in disarray.

Tensions have escalated and erupted into violence across several provinces in South Africa following former president Jacob Zuma’s entry into prison on July 9 after being convicted for contempt of court. Between July 9-15, protests in support of Zuma have turned into violent demonstrations over economic and domestic commodity concerns.

Subsequent looting has been reported against a backdrop of economic exhaustion: unemployment has reached a record 32.6 percent; adverse economic impacts due to the COVID-19 pandemic; the fallout of the third wave of cases ongoing in the country and subsequent restrictive measures; and the country's various core social issues including inequality. On July 12, the South African army was deployed to the Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces to contain the violence. Scenes of looting, clashes with security forces, and arrests were reported in multiple towns in both provinces. As of July 15, at least 72 people have been killed and over 1,234 others arrested.

Looting in Areas throughout Gauteng and KZN Results in Loss of Billions of Rand

Pro-Zuma supporters have been protesting in the Gauteng and KZN Provinces to have the former president released from prison. Malls and businesses have been looted, with many being set on fire and destroyed, resulting in the loss of approximately R2 billion. While protesting in South Africa is a relatively common occurrence, the latest unrest is unparalleled. These protests have been significantly more violent, with looting expanding beyond grocery stores to other business such as chemical compounds and tire manufacturing factories. Groups comprising primarily of pro-Zuma supporters have been at the forefront of the protests. Recently, some reports indicated that the protests have become more xenophobic in nature with a large portion of the Indian community in KZN being targeted.

Protests and looting remain largely unorganized, highlighting the opportunistic nature of these events and the difficulty for police and military authorities to contain them. In some areas of Durban, groups of armed whites have formed vigilante groups and taken over control of their areas, blocking entrances and exits into neighborhoods. Indian citizens have also taken control of their areas, employing similar tactics. In Soweto, representatives of local communities came together to organize an anti-pillar defense line; many were armed.

Several primary and secondary roads have been blockaded, most notably the main distribution route between Johannesburg and Durban, the N3 highway. The highway is a key route, linking Durban, the biggest port in Sub-Saharan Africa, to the economic hub of Johannesburg. This has resulted in significant impacts on the distribution of basic goods. Widespread fuel shortages also remain possible over the coming days after unrest in KZN prompted the shutdown of South Africa's largest oil refinery, SAPREF July 13; the refinery accounts for over 30 percent of the country's oil supply. Supply shortages have been reported in Richards Bay.

Government Strategy on Quelling the Unrest

President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed the nation on July 12, condemning the unrest, and subsequently dispatched the South African Defense Force (SANDF) to Gauteng and KZN to stabilize the situation. Political parties criticized the address stating that the president gave no decisive plan of action, and even so, efforts should have been made at the onset of the protests. A key tactic previously used by the government to manage unrest would be to meet with those organizing protests; however, because there is no central group or committee behind the unrest, there were no mitigation efforts.

While the presence of the military in the streets has certainly helped in managing protests, it is largely due to locals protecting remaining resources and taking a stand against further looting. Locals also expressed discontent after the president’s address, saying that authorities should have declared a state of emergency in these provinces, with tightened curfew hours over and above the COVID-19 curfews in place. If unrest continues in the Gauteng and KZN Provinces, it is possible that a state of emergency will be declared and additional SANDF likely be deployed.

Near-term Outlook for Operational Conditions

Jacob Zuma’s trial for contempt of court has been reserved to the Constitutional Court until a later date; however, Zuma is likely to remain in prison until the matter has been settled. Although the incarceration of Zuma prompted protests and unrest, rescinding the judgment is unlikely to resolve the violence. Protesters are calling for decisive action and for policy changes that address inherent socio-economic disparities, unemployment, and poor service delivery.

Sporadic bouts of unrest are likely to continue throughout the Gauteng and KZN provinces, with protesters taking advantage of areas with few police authorities present. Although other provinces have been unaffected by these protests, the spread of protests into the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and other provinces cannot be ruled out.