Lagos, Nigeria 2016. Operational conditions have worsened in Nigeria in recent years as the country struggles to fulfill its significant potential.
Recent social media ban shifts focus away from deep social, economic, and security concerns as Nigeria’s potential fades.
On June 5th, authorities in Nigeria announced the suspension of the social media platform Twitter after the company removed a tweet by President Muhammadu Buhari. The tweet had made reference to dealing with “misbehaving” individuals in “the language they understand.” The tweet was a thinly veiled threat of violence against separatists in the south-east region of the country. Nigeria’s significant youth demographic has ridiculed the ban and it has been cited as further evidence of the country’s slide towards authoritarianism. Recent similar action to control media and communication platforms has seen the government announce plans to license other social media and messaging applications as well as the mass registration of subscriber identification module (SIM) card owners. In a country where the median age is 18 and unemployment is at an all-time high (at least 33 percent but is likely to be higher due to under-reporting), critics have accused the government and the country’s elites of being out of touch with the populace. The ban is also reportedly costing Nigeria’s economy up to USD 6 million per day.
Economic Downturn Exacerbated by Fallout of Social Media Platform Ban
As the fallout of the social media platform ban continues to be assessed, Nigeria’s economy remains in a dire state. Unemployment is expected to rise beyond the current 33 percent as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic further materialize. Furthermore, Nigeria’s failure to diversify its economy has long created problems not linked to the impact of the global pandemic. The country’s fortune has been hostage to the global price of oil, and slumps in pricing have regularly resulted in repeated periods of recession for the African giant. Oil revenue accounts for up to 50 percent of government revenue, and a decline has followed a downturn in oil prices in spending on Nigeria’s already poor infrastructure and social services. At a micro-level, the economic downturn and eventual stall have greatly affected a cross-section of the population, most notably the country’s youth. Government spending on education is almost non-existent, with President Buhari recently admitting that the government cannot afford the amount of funding needed to revive the system.
Nigeria's Vulnerable Security Profile
The economic situation, in turn, has greatly impacted Nigeria’s security condition. Millions of people remain under the poverty line, and criminality, banditry, and piracy have been adopted as cottage industries by a significant number of the country’s unemployed population. Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, usually with assailants operating out of Nigeria, has continued to spread, with several new hotspots emerging in recent months. Incidents have been reported off the coast of Ghana and Gabon, hundreds of miles from Nigeria. Kidnapping, ethnic violence, and secessionist activity have also increased, particularly in the south-east and south-west regions. Salafi-jihadist terrorist groups remain resilient in Nigeria despite years of military attrition. Their ability to adapt and move quickly while exploiting vulnerabilities in the military strategy will ensure their survival until a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach is taken to deal with some of the underlying causes of the insurgency. The Biafra issue has also come to the fore in recent months as the further disintegration of Nigeria looms. The President’s controversial tweet had been directed at Indigenous People of Biafra-aligned separatists operating in the south-east following repeated attacks on security positions in the first of 2021.
Near-term Outlook for Operational Conditions in Nigeria
Operational conditions are unlikely to improve in Nigeria in the medium term. The security situation is likely to remain poor, and further bouts of civil unrest across the country will occur in major urban areas, including Lagos and Abuja. An escalation of the secessionist activity in the south-east region remains a realistic possibility. Despite the President’s threat of violence, security intervention is unlikely to resolve the matter. Further incidents targeting foreign and domestic companies deemed to be unpatriotic or undermining the perceived strength of the authorities are highly likely, particularly if these organizations are deemed to be supportive of civil groups and activists. Authorities may also target human rights and aid organizations if these groups are considered to be going against the official narrative.
Related Intelligence Alerts
Warning | 23 Jun 2021 | 05:53 AM UTC | Nigeria: Indefinite security-related curfew in place in parts of Abia State as of June 23
Warning | 21 Jun 2021 | 04:38 AM UTC | Nigeria: Ongoing protest in Abuja June 21
Warning | 12 Jun 2021 | 07:52 PM UTC | Nigeria: Nationwide protests and clashes possible through at least mid-June over rising unemployment and security issues
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