Future of Civil Aviation in Afghanistan Remains Highly Uncertain

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has cast enormous doubts over the future of international flights to and from the country. While US and allied forces have regained control of Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) and allowed evacuation flights to resume after chaotic scenes on Aug. 16, airlines have suspended all scheduled commercial service to the country, and it is unclear when they will be able to resume.

Major complicating factors include the security situation at the airport, the collapse of the outgoing Afghan government’s institutions, and the Taliban’s historical association with aviation-based terrorism. Potential outcomes for commercial aviation in Afghanistan range from a resumption of nearly all scheduled flights within a month to a long-term shutdown of nearly all flights to and from the country.

Evacuation Flights

As of Aug. 18, the only flights operating into and out of Afghanistan are evacuation flights. US and allied forces are in control of KBL, including air traffic control at the airport. The Taliban are currently not interfering with operations at the airport. It is unclear how long the evacuation flights and associated US control of KBL airport will continue.

The current situation at KBL airport is relatively orderly, as the US and its allies remain in control of the airport and evacuation flights are operating regularly. Officials suspended evacuation flights Aug. 16 after Afghan authorities abandoned KBL's civilian terminal and allowed large crowds of people onto the airport’s tarmac and runway, but military forces have since restored order, allowing the flights to resume.

Most countries are focused on evacuating their nationals along with Afghans who worked with NATO forces during the war, and individuals who want to evacuate on these flights should contact their diplomatic mission. The security situation at the airport and in surrounding areas remains unstable, and individuals should not attempt to travel to the airport unless onward travel is confirmed.

The US and its allies have not stated how long their evacuation flights will continue or how long they will remain in control of KBL airport. The original timeline for final US withdrawal was Aug. 31, but it is not clear if this date remains relevant to US plans.

The US reportedly reached an agreement with the Taliban on Aug. 16 for the Taliban to not interfere with evacuation operations, and, as of Aug. 18, the Taliban are generally not disrupting operations at KBL airport, although some sporadic armed clashes have occurred. It is unclear how long the Taliban will allow the evacuation flights to continue.

Any attempt by the Taliban to take over control of KBL or disrupt the flow of evacuees to the airport will greatly hinder and could effectively end the evacuation. The US has threatened retaliation against the Taliban if the Taliban attempts to disrupt evacuation operations.

Resumption of Commercial Flights

Air India (AI) is currently selling tickets for daily flights from Kabul to Delhi starting Aug. 21. Pakistan International Airlines (PK) is also offering tickets on flights from Kabul starting Sept. 2. While the sale of tickets is a strong indicator that an airline intends to operate flights, it is no guarantee that the flights will operate, as the airline can cancel the flights at short notice. The status of these flights will depend on the security situation in Kabul and the regulatory situation for commercial aviation in Afghanistan.

The resumption of commercial flights from Kabul will require authorities to restore a basic level of security at KBL’s civilian terminal. All passengers will have to go through normal airport security screening, and screened passengers will have to be segregated from unscreened passengers. It is unclear who will perform these functions, especially after US and allied forces leave.

Major international airlines and foreign governments are highly unlikely to trust the Taliban to conduct security screening themselves, and any private contractors would have to operate with Taliban permission. The Taliban will also have to secure the airport property once US and allied forces have left.

All flights operating in Afghan airspace in the short term will have to do so without air traffic control (ATC) services. Afghanistan’s ATC system effectively ceased operating when the Taliban seized control of Kabul, and currently, the only operational ATC system in the country is a US-run system controlling the evacuation at KBL airport.

Commercial airliners can still operate in Afghan airspace, but must do so without any assistance from ATC to keep them separated from other aircraft. Most airlines are currently avoiding Afghan airspace, although United Airlines (UA) is continuing to fly its flights between the US and India through a small portion of Afghan airspace.

Long-Term Future

The long-term future of commercial aviation in Afghanistan is highly uncertain. Potential scenarios range from a resumption of most commercial flights within a month to a near-total cessation of commercial aviation in the country that lasts for years. The availability of flights to and from the country will depend on whether the Taliban tries to maintain the country’s international air links, and whether the international aviation community accepts Taliban-led institutions.

A key factor in the future of commercial aviation in Afghanistan will be the status of Afghanistan’s civil aviation authority (CAA). In order for international flights to resume, the Taliban government will require some institution to perform the functions of a CAA, including licensing and registering airlines, maintaining airports, performing air traffic control services, and establishing agreements with other countries to allow international flights.

The easiest way for the Taliban to accomplish this task would be to resurrect the Afghan Civil Aviation Authority (ACAA), the CAA of the outgoing government. Retaining the ACAA would give Afghanistan a degree of regulatory continuity and would likely maintain most of its air service agreements with other countries, allowing foreign airlines to resume operations to Afghanistan once the security situation stabilizes. The ACAA’s social media accounts suggest that the institution is attempting to restore operations, but it is unclear if they are part of the Taliban’s future plans for the country.

Afghan airlines will likely face a difficult future under the Taliban. The country’s two main airlines, privately-owned Kam Air (RQ) and state-owned Ariana Afghan Airlines (FG), have both suspended operations and have not announced plans for resuming operations.

Kam Air has suggested that it intends to resume operations, and the airline has at least one aircraft that is airworthy and outside of Afghanistan, but the airline was heavily reliant on foreign crews and staff, many of whom likely fled Afghanistan when the Taliban took over. Ariana’s status as a state-owned carrier means that it is now effectively a Taliban-owned airline; it is not clear if the Taliban have the interest or expertise required to run an airline.

Companies and individuals should consider the possibility that normal commercial aviation in Afghanistan may not resume for years. International commercial aviation in Afghanistan effectively shut down during the Taliban’s previous rule due to a combination of ongoing warfare, international sanctions, and the Taliban’s general disinterest in maintaining international flights.

International organizations and regulators may refuse to recognize or deal with Taliban-led civil aviation institutions due to the Taliban’s historical association with aviation terrorism and potential future sanctions. While maintaining international air links does not require an especially competent government or friendly relations with the outside world, it does require a modicum of effort and international cooperation, and it is not certain that the Taliban will put forth the required effort or obtain the required cooperation.