Mali’s Recent Coup Exposes Severe Weaknesses

The United States announced May 26, 2021 that it would cut security assistance following the latest coup.
U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Ken Bergmann, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Mali is grappling with the fallout from a May 24 coup d’état against its provisional government -- the second of its kind in less than a year. While its political leaders squabble in Bamako, the country’s systemic weaknesses, including lackluster economic growth, corruption, and the losing battle against militant groups, will continue for the foreseeable future, posing notable risks for regional security and business continuity.

A Coup Within a Coup

As if Mali’s already poor political situation could not get worse, it suddenly did. On May 24, members of the Malian armed forces forcefully detained the civilian heads of the transitional government, including the president, prime minister, and minister of defense. Following their arrests, the three men announced their resignations upon release from custody. The move was widely condemned by key international partners, including France, the United States, and the European Union.

Since then, the leader behind the most recent coup, former military junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita, declared himself the country’s new transitional president.

Systemic Weaknesses Preventing Institutional Stability

While it remains unclear what leverage France and other international allies of Mali intend to use to force the government to backtrack, the recent events underscore several deep problems for Mali. First and foremost, the country’s political institutions remain woefully weak and prone to elite capture, corruption, and interference from the armed forces. In fact, one can argue that the military junta never truly ceded power to the transitional civilian-led government following the coup (as exemplified by the quick removal of the civilian leadership).

Second, the “coup within a coup” highlights the challenges for France and its military, the prime guarantor of regional security in the Sahel. Indeed, France has been heavily invested in shoring up its perennially weak Sahel allies since its military intervention in Mali in 2013. For years it has stationed thousands of troops and air assets across the vast and militant-plagued region to degrade al-Qaeda and Islamic State-backed militant groups.

While this investment has arguably prevented state collapse, efforts to strengthen institution-building and rule of law have been sorely lacking. Instead, France’s security umbrella has had the unintended consequence of giving regional political elites such as those in Mali (the epicenter of regional militant activity) carte-blanche to avoid tough-but-necessary political reforms needed to overhaul the predatory state institutions which engender so much animus elsewhere in the country.

In Mali’s far north, for example, civilians routinely seek to avoid agents of the central government because they are often prone to predatory behavior such as bribes or human rights abuses

Notable Risks to Regional Security and Business Continuity

Consequently, as political elites in Bamako wrestle for power, it will be important to monitor how regional militant groups may seek to profit from the distracted central governments. Most critically, Al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked groups in the Sahel will certainly continue to commit attacks against local and foreign security forces in their bid to undermine security.

These efforts will be bolstered by the fallout from the second coup as the United States and other allies halt security assistance to the Malian armed forces. Should the political situation in Bamako worsen, it is also likely that these groups will seek to further ingratiate themselves with local populations by providing resources and other materials that the weak and poorly coordinated central government fails to deliver.

Such propaganda efforts may successfully increase civilian support for these terrorist groups in certain areas, providing them with additional intelligence sources and manpower in the months ahead.

Mali is in an extremely precarious situation. Between political elite infighting in the capital and increasingly deadly militant violence in the far north and central provinces, the situation shows no signs of improving. This will provide militants will even more room to maneuver and commit attacks in the weeks and months ahead.