Intelligence Briefing
Listen to Crisis24 analysts discuss the consequences of the recent coup in Myanmar, including the likely impacts on security and business. Plus, by participating live, you will get a chance to ask your questions to our experts.
Executive Summary
On Feb. 1, Myanmar’s military (Tatmadaw) declared a one-year state of emergency as Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seized power while detaining officials from the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), including party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and several other senior officials. The military stated that a “free and fair general election” will be held once the state of emergency ends. There is a likelihood of unrest as supporters of the NLD and Suu Kyi, who remains widely popular in Myanmar, may carry out protests in their defense.
Key Judgments
- Senior General Min Aung Hlaing seized power on Feb. 1 and declared himself the Chairman of the State Legislative Council while detaining officials from the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD), including party leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
- Unrest is possible in the near term as supporters of the NLD and Suu Kyi, who remains widely popular in Myanmar, may conduct protests in their defense.
- A heightened security presence is to be expected across Myanmar, with reports of heavy deployments in Naypyidaw and Yangon.
- The US and other foreign nations are likely to use diplomatic levers, such as sanctions on Myanmar’s military, to pressure them to return to democratic norms more quickly.
State of Emergency Declared
Phone and internet communications are cut off or restricted in parts of the country, particularly in Yangon and Naypyidaw, while TV news channels were restricted to the Tatmadaw’s Myawaddy official channel. In addition to senior officials, the Tatmadaw announced the removal of 24 ministers from Aung San Suu Kyi’s government and appointed 11 replacements from its ranks to the new administration for key portfolios such as finance, foreign affairs, health, and defense.
The coup follows statements from a military spokesperson that a takeover could not be ruled out after allegations of fraud in the November 2020 elections were deemed to have been ignored. Suu Kyi’s NLD reportedly won the elections with 83 percent, while the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) took just 33 out of 476 available seats. The NLD stated that the military’s allegations were groundless, and any verifiable election discrepancies would not have affected the outcome. According to observers, the coup may have been triggered by Suu Kyi’s push for constitutional reform to reduce the military’s power in politics and fears over a consolidation of the NLD’s power. Myanmar’s military leaders appear keen to leverage the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s increasing domestic influence, Suu Kyi’s declining international popularity, and a perceived broader decline of democracy, particularly in Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia and Thailand to that might yield a more mild international backlash.
Foreign Governments Condemn Military Coup and Call for Release of Detained Officials
The international community, including the US, UK, and Australia, has condemned the coup. US President Joe Biden’s administration has threatened to act if the detained officials are not released, ordering a review of previous sanctions lifted as the country transitioned to democracy in 2011. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson labeled the coup as unlawful imprisonment of civilians and urged that they be released, while the EU, France and Japan have called for the rule of law to be respected and for democracy to be restored.
China has refrained from condemning the coup and has called for all parties to resolve their differences. Beijing holds substantial political and economic influence in Myanmar as its largest trading partner with oil and gas pipelines, as well as Belt and Road projects in the country. Separately, the response of several ASEAN countries remains varied, with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore urging dialogue and restraint. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan have stated that the coup was a matter of Myanmar’s “internal affairs.”
Outlook
Following the detention of its party officials, the NLD’s official Facebook account published a statement on behalf of Suu Kyi calling for people not to accept the military coup and to protest; such demonstrations could result in clashes between NLD and pro-military supporters and a possible crackdown by security forces. The coup has also raised concerns of further violent persecution and oppression of ethnic minorities, such as the Rohingya in Rakhine state and other minorities in Kachin state.
A heightened security presence is evident across Myanmar. Further telecommunications, transportation, financial, and business service disruptions are likely in the coming days.
International powers opposed to the coup are likely to use diplomatic levers such as sanctions on Myanmar’s military to pressure them to return to democracy. However, foreign governments may also be deterred from acting more aggressively given that - while Suu Kyi remains popular locally, her global image has suffered due to her failure to address the ongoing Rohingya crisis; some explicit verbal concession to a future solution may be required of her if she is able to speak openly in the near term. Regardless, there is a possibility that the state of emergency may extend beyond a year based on previous declarations, and given that the constitution, written by the military, provides them with significant power.
Author(s)
