Tunisia: Political Uncertainty to Persist Following Alleged Coup

Protesters gather in Tunis July 26 amid widespread anti-government demonstrations.

All political power in Tunisia now rests with President Kais Saied as of July 27. Under Tunisia’s 2014 Constitution, executive power in the country lies with the president, prime minister, and parliament. On the evening of July 25, President Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechiechi, suspended the country’s Parliament for 30 days, and stripped lawmakers of immunity. Parliamentary immunity is a legal doctrine, which grants members of parliament in a country immunity from prosecution. The system allows members of parliament to vote however they see fit on a policy matter or a piece of legislation without the fear of prosecution. The Speaker of the Parliament and head of the moderate Islamist Party – Ennahda – condemned Saied’s move and has called it a coup. Ennahda is also the largest political party in Tunisia.

Saied’s consolidation of power came following nationwide violent demonstrations across the country on July 25. The demonstrations transpired on Republic Day, which commemorates the anniversary of the country’s vote to abolish the monarchy and establish the republic on July 25, 1957. The demonstrations had been organized to denounce the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and deteriorating economic conditions throughout the country. Tunisia has one of the highest per capita fatality rates, with just seven percent of Tunisians fully inoculated to date. The slow rollout of the vaccine program prompted President Saied to dismiss the country’s health minister and to task the military to take over the process.

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on Tunisia’s economy, which is heavily dependent on the tourism industry. The country’s economy contracted by 8.6 percent in 2020; the current 17 percent unemployment rate will likely rise as the detrimental economic impact of the global crisis ripples throughout the country, exacerbating existing socioeconomic issues. The recent political maneuvering by Saied will almost certainly aggravate the country’s economic situation as it will introduce political uncertainty. The incident also transpires amid the Tunisian government’s efforts to secure a new loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to address budget deficits.

What Prompted President Saied’s Recent Move?

Tunisia has experienced several governments since the Arab Spring originated in Tunisia in 2011 and toppled the country’s previous government of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled over the country with an iron first for over two decades. Political infighting has been a common feature of the country’s democratic system since 2011. While significant political reforms have taken hold in the last decade, ordinary Tunisians continue to suffer from poverty and the lack of economic opportunities.

Against the backdrop of apparent corruption among political elites in Tunisia, Saied – who is not linked to a political party and had never held a political office previously – was elected in 2019. Since Saied’s election, Tunisia has had two prime ministers with whom Saied has been jockeying for political power. While the president maintains control over the country’s military and foreign affairs, the prime minister oversees the administration of the government with oversight from the Parliament.

Saied, however, has been determined to upend the political status quo and expand the powers of the presidency. This has pitted Saied against the country’s prime minister as well as the Speaker of the Parliament - Rachid Ghannouchi. After announcing the suspension of parliament and dismissal of the government, Saied stated, “We have taken these decisions … until social peace returns to Tunisia and until we save the state.”

Saied has specifically invoked Article 80 of the Constitution, which grants the president emergency powers in the event of an “imminent threat.” Critics of the president, including most political parties, have called his latest move a coup and in clear violation of the country’s Constitution. Ghannouchi has stated that the parliament cannot be suspended and remains active; he has also said the president’s move is “invalid and unconstitutional,” calling on the international community to stop “the forces of dictatorship and tyranny.”

Public Response

Saied’s move to suspend the Parliament and remove the prime minister was met with jubilation on the streets of Tunis. The public appears to largely welcome the president’s move. While the president has had his critics, public opinion polls continue to demonstrate that he enjoys strong support from the Tunisian public. The Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), to which more than one million Tunisians belong, has supported the president and refused to condemn his move, stating that he attempted to preempt an imminent danger.

The public response, however, could change if the president fails to appoint a new prime minister in the coming days. Saied has stated that he will appoint a prime minister shortly. The appointment of a qualified and independent prime minister will signal to the public that the president is intent on forming a government that can deliver on its promises and bring about serious economic reforms. If the president fails to enact the reforms he has stated, his move to seize power will be deemed as a coup, and that will significantly undermine his legitimacy within Tunisia and weaken the country’s democratic gains in the last decade.

Implications of the President’s Actions

Protests remain very likely in the coming days and weeks in Tunisia. The government has already stationed the police and military outside government buildings. On July 26, security forces stopped Ghannouchi from entering the parliament building; further similar actions could prompt rallies and demonstrations by supporters of political parties.

Saied has stated that his move was not a suspension of the Constitution and has said, “[w]however fires a single bullet, our armed and security forces will retaliate with a barrage of bullets,” indicating clearly that he is ready to escalate the situation. As to the next step in the political process, there is no clarity on how Saied may move forward. The country has yet to set up the constitutional court that the 2014 Constitution called for; that institution is designed to adjudicate disputes of this nature.

In the meantime, Saied has instituted a series of measures following his decisions. A nightly 19:00-06:00 curfew will remain in place through Aug. 26. The president has also shut down public agencies and institutions, July 27-28 and banned travel between cities. Gatherings of more than three people in public have also been banned. The measures come amid heightened security measures and the possibility of further demonstrations by political groups.

Hundreds of the Ennahda political party supporters gathered near the country's Parliament, July 26, to protest Saied's recent decisions. Authorities will almost certainly increase security to monitor any future large gatherings and protests. Clashes are possible if demonstrators are overly disruptive or if they ignore police orders to disperse. Authorities will likely maintain increased security measures nationwide for the duration of the nightly curfew.

Conclusion

Tunisia has been in a precarious political situation for years. However, never has the country faced such uncertainty since the Arab Spring events of 2011 that toppled the Ben Ali regime. While Tunisia has all the accoutrements of a democracy, political infighting and lack of governance have degraded people’s confidence in its leaders and institutions. Corruption remains prevalent, and most Tunisians do not trust their political representatives.

While Saied’s actions have been widely denounced by the country’s political parties, the public appears to largely support him. Saied must move very swiftly to appoint a new prime minister to restore order and remove political uncertainty. Additionally, this political uncertainty – unless resolved very quickly – could further hurt the country’s economy, which could result in a prolonged period of political instability.