The war in Yemen will almost certainly escalate – at least in the short-term. On January 17, 2022, the Al-Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have perpetrated an attack “deep in the UAE.” The Al-Houthis have further stated that they targeted Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH) and an industrial area in drone strikes. Emirati officials have stated that explosions involving at least three petroleum tankers occurred in the industrial area of Mussaffah in Abu Dhabi. A fire at a construction site also occurred at AUH. The explosions, which were most likely caused by drone strikes, killed three people and wounded six others. The evidence gathered by the Emirati police seems to support the Al-Houthis’ claim; Emirati police have stated that they have discovered parts of a small plane at the impact areas.
There have been attacks against commercial ships in Emirati territory in the past. For example, a commercial vessel owned by an Israeli firm was attacked in the UAE’s Port of Fujairah in April 2021; the attack caused an explosion but no casualties. Similarly, four commercial ships were damaged in May 2019 in the same port. Israeli and US officials attributed the attacks to Iran, which has been a major ally of the Al-Houthis. However, this is the first time that an attack of this magnitude against the UAE has been conducted since Saudi Arabia and the UAE became involved in the Yemen war in 2015. The UAE has been a major partner in the Saudi-coalition fighting against the Al-Houthis in Yemen. While Abu Dhabi stated that it was withdrawing most of its forces from the war in 2019, Emirati proxy forces were key in the defeat of the Al-Houthis in Yemen’s Shabwah Governorate earlier this month. The defeat in Shabwah was a major setback for the Al-Houthis as maintaining control over the governorate is key to the capture of the oil-rich Ma’rib Governorate. The Al-Houthis and forces backed by Saudis and Emiratis have been battling over Ma’rib for over a year.
The alleged drone strikes leave the UAE with no choice but to retaliate. The UAE will almost certainly conduct airstrikes against the Al-Houthi rebels’ military targets across northern Yemen, particularly in Sana’a. These airstrikes will not only escalate the situation in Yemen but could also prompt further attacks by the Al-Houthis against Emirati cities. The Al-Houthi rebels have continued to refine and evolve their weapons systems over the past few years as the war in Yemen continues. The strikes on January 17, 2022 illustrate this improved capability of the Al-Houthis as the distance between Sana’a and Mussafah is nearly 1,469 km (913 miles).
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced on January 17, 2022 that its air defenses had intercepted and destroyed at least eight drones that were launched toward the kingdom. Such attacks will remain a key feature of the war in Yemen so long as there is no resolution. The attacks against Saudi Arabia, which have nearly doubled over the past year, come at a time when the kingdom’s supply of missile interceptors is allegedly running low. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has already petitioned regional countries to restock and address its shortages of interceptors.
The January 17, 2022 attack, as well as the seizure of the UAE-flagged vessel (Rwabee) on January 3, 2022, cannot be examined in isolation from what is transpiring across the Middle East. The US-Iran tensions continue despite the two countries’ indirect efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iranian-aligned Shi’a militias continue to conduct attacks against Iraqi military bases housing US military personnel and diplomatic missions in Iraq. Israel and Iran appear to be intensifying covert actions against one another.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East will continue to remain dynamic in the short- to medium-term. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 has altered the geopolitical environment in the region. A new realignment in terms of the formation of new alliances are underway. Archrivals - such as Saudi Arabia and Iran - are even in the process of normalizing relations and forging friendlier ties. The UAE and Iran are also attempting to reach a détente. The UAE’s National Security Advisor—Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed—visited Tehran in early December and met with a number of senior security officials, including Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. The main objective behind the high-profile visit was to de-escalate tensions and forge “warm ties.”
The UAE downgraded diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016 following an attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Despite the heightened tensions since then, the UAE has maintained a diplomatic representation in Tehran. Security in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is of preeminent importance in the UAE. The attacks against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in 2019 prompted the UAE to send a delegation to Tehran to ease tensions. The recent talks and visits between the two countries come against the background of normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE, which was reached through the Abraham Accords in 2020.
While the Israelis will likely tolerate the establishment of closer trade relations between Abu Dhabi and Tehran, it will likely take drastic steps and could possibly sever ties with the UAE if the two countries were to begin forging close security and intelligence ties. Israel considers Iran its archenemy and is unlikely to maintain close relations with any country that is heavily involved in business and security activities with Tehran. It remains to be seen whether significant steps can be taken in bringing the UAE and Iran closer in light of the recent attack. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have regularly accused Iran of supplying the Al-Houthis with supplies of weapons and munitions. While Tehran carries significant influence with the Al-Houthis, it is unlikely that the Al-Houthis will cease their drone and missile attacks unless Saudi Arabia and the UAE discontinue their support of the Yemeni government forces, which is unlikely.
