Brazil: Continued pro-and anti-Lula demonstrations likely /update 3

Event

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has been sentenced to 12 years in prison on corruption and money-laundering charges, has nevertheless been chosen as the candidate for the Workers' Party (PT) in the October presidential elections. While Lula should stay out of jail as he appeals (again) the court ruling, he, as a convict, is currently banned from registering as a candidate; unless the courts overturn the conviction before the August registration deadline, he will be unable to run.

As Lula remains a popular, if divisive, figure in Brazil, rallies by his supporters are possible throughout the country. Anti-Lula protests are also likely. Clashes between protesters and security personnel, along with other forms of violence and localized traffic disruptions, are possible at all protests. 

Context

Former President Lula da Silva was convicted of corruption and money laundering by a federal judge in July 2017. He was sentenced to nine and a half years in jail but remained free on appeal; this appeal was rejected by the courts on January 24, when his sentence was increased to 12 years. His passport was ordered seized on January 25.

Lula was president from 2003 to 2010 and, as the country's first working-class president, was and remains a popular figure among much of the population. His conviction is the highest-profile yet in a broad three-year corruption investigation in Brazil, called Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato). Lula's legal representatives have characterized the trial as a political witch-hunt, intended to keep him out of office.

Advice

Individuals in Brazil are advised to avoid any demonstrations due to the risk of violence and to keep abreast of the situation