Brazil: Ex-President Lula tours southern states March 19-28 /update 4

Event

Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva embarked on a tour of three southern states - Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina - on Monday, March 19. The tour, which is expected to last ten days until Wednesday, March 28, is considered a pre-campaign tour to drum up support ahead of the October 2018 general elections, in which Lula is planning to run again for president as the Workers' Party (PT) candidate. Pro- and anti-Lula demonstrations were witnessed in Lula's first stops in Rio Grande do Sul state in recent days, including in Bagé and Cruz Alta. Additional pro- and anti-Lula rallies, heightened security measures, and localized transportation disruptions are expected in the abovementioned states during Lula's planned tour. Clashes between protesters and security personnel, along with other forms of violence, are possible at all protests.

Context

Brazil's southern states, the sites of Lula's current pre-campaign tour, are reportedly among the areas of the country with the lowest support for the former president. The tour comes as Lula faces a legal battle over a writ of habeas corpus submitted by his criminal defense team to avoid his imprisonment on a conviction of corruption and money laundering; Lula may be arrested if the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court denies Lula habeas corpus on April 4.

In July 2017, Lula was found guilty of receiving BRL 2.25 million (USD 680,000) in bribes from the OAS construction company, in the form of a luxury apartment in Guarujá (São Paulo state), in exchange for awarding OAS public contracts with state oil company Petrobras. He was sentenced to nine and a half years in jail but remained free on appeal; this appeal was rejected by the courts on January 24, when his sentence was increased to 12 years. His passport was ordered seized on January 25. Unless the courts overturn his conviction before the August registration deadline, he will be unable to run in the October elections.

Lula was president from 2003 to 2011 and, as the country's first working-class president, was and remains a popular figure among much of the population. His conviction is the highest-profile yet in a broad three-year corruption investigation in Brazil, called Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato). Lula's legal representatives have characterized the trial as a political witch hunt, intended to keep him out of office.

Advice

Individuals in Brazil, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina states, are advised to monitor developments to the situation, avoid all protests and demonstrations as a precaution, and adhere to all instructions issued by the local authorities.