CAR: Post-election tensions to persist nationwide through January /update 4

Event

Post-election insecurity is likely to persist through January following the legislative and presidential elections Dec. 27, which incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadera won.

The nationwide 2000-0500 nightly curfew remains in place indefinitely amid increased militia activity linked to post-election political tensions. Following the Jan. 13 attack on the capital, Bangui, militia groups will likely continue to conduct attacks on government forces nationwide as rival armed factions, including the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel coalition, attempts to pressure the government and derail the political process. Recurrent attacks since mid-December have occurred in Mbomou, Ouham-Pende, Ouaka, Lobaye, and Ombella-M'poko prefectures.

Anti-government demonstrations are possible in the run-up to and following the Jan. 19 finalization of the election results, including in Bangui. Opposition groups called for the annulment of the result, claiming various electoral irregularities. Rebels, including the CPC, could also increase activity ahead of this significant date. Security forces will probably remain deployed in major urban centers and areas with opposition events as a deterrent. Protesters have clashed with security forces in the past; attempts by security forces to disperse gatherings or prevent supporters from gathering could increase the potential for disturbances. Police may use tear gas, water cannon, batons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse protesters. Ground travel disruptions are likely near all protest sites.

Bangui
An increased security presence in Bangui has been reported since mid-December due to increased rebel activities and threats to the capital. Security forces could implement additional measures ahead of Jan. 19. Security protocols will likely prompt localized transport disruptions in the city. Any clashes that materialize will likely have a significant impact on those operating in the affected area. Under such circumstances, threats to personal safety and transportation disruptions are likely.

Context

Political tensions are currently elevated after opposition groups rejected the outcome of the elections after the electoral commission's Jan. 4 announcement that Touadera had won. Opposition candidates may appeal the results before Jan. 19, by which time the Constitutional Court will confirm the results. The US Embassy in the Central African Republic (CAR) subsequently issued an alert warning of election-related unrest and violence following the electoral commission's announcement.

The relationship between opposition leaders and rival militia groups is unclear; however, authorities have accused former President Francois Bozize of allying himself to armed groups and fomenting a plan to destabilize the country. Bozize is known to have the support of the Return, Reclamation, and Rehabilitation (3R) militia, while Anicet-Georges Dologuele, who came second in the election, is supported by Bozize. The Public Prosecutor's Office in Bangui opened a judicial investigation against Bozize Jan. 4 for his alleged involvement in ongoing instability.

Militia attacks are likely to continue after four major militia leaders were expelled from the national government Jan. 2 due to their involvement in threatening the government and its conduct in elections. These leaders include Maxime Mokom, of the 3R militia, and Ali Darassa, leader of the Unit for Peace (UPC) militia. Militia leaders were given official positions as part of a 2019 peace and integration agreement between them and the government, which has since broken down.

The overall security situation is extremely poor; the level of fighting has steadily increased in parts of the country since the 2019 peace accord, particularly in northwestern CAR. In Bangui, the situation remains fragile and could deteriorate with little-to-no notice. Outside Bangui, militias have continued to assert control by setting up roadblocks and committing acts of violence that have exacerbated ethnic tensions.

Advice

Liaise with trusted in-country contacts and monitor the situation closely. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation if operating in CAR through January. Avoid all protests, election-related gatherings, or areas where violence has recently occurred. Plan for potential ground travel or business disruptions. Do not drive through protester roadblocks. Reconfirm all business appointments. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider postponing all travel outside the capital.