Armenia: Anti-government protests likely to continue through February /update 1

Event

Sporadic protests will likely continue across Armenia through at least the end of February in reaction to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's signing of an agreement ending the country's conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Activists have held protests in central Yerevan, including on Republic Square and outside government facilities; several thousand protested at the National Assembly on Demirchyan Street Jan. 28 prompting localized disruptions and leading to the arrest of at least 21 demonstrators. Activists have also staged roadblock protests on intercity highways in recent weeks, notably the M1 Highway around Gyumri, to demand the return of individuals reportedly captured by Azerbaijani forces during post-ceasefire clashes.

Armenian authorities will probably maintain a very high security posture near potential protest sites in the coming weeks; security forces will almost certainly respond quickly to any further disruptive demonstrations. While the majority of related protests will likely take place in prominent squares and near government buildings in Yerevan, rallies and other gatherings could also occur in other cities nationwide such as Gyumri, Vanadzor, and Vagharshapat; further roadblock protests could prompt traffic disruptions on intercity highways at short notice. Clashes are possible between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as between opposing activists.

Context

The Nov. 10 peace deal, which the Armenian public essentially views as an act of surrender to Azerbaijan, immediately sparked large demonstrations by angry citizens in Yerevan. Seventeen political opposition parties, including Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), are calling for Pashinyan's resignation.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in Armenia, and especially Yerevan. Avoid any protests that may materialize; keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Heed the instructions of local authorities. If violence erupts nearby, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure non-governmental building. Check route status of intercity highways before setting out and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities.