Armenia: Opposing demonstrations to take place in Yerevan the evening of March 1

Event

Rival demonstrations in support of and denouncing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will take place in Yerevan the evening of March 1. In the earlier of the two demonstrations, opposition activists will gather on Marshal Baghramyan Avenue around 1800, where they will call for the prime minister's resignation over the signing of an agreement ending Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Around 1830, a group of Pashinyan's supporters will gather in Republic Square. Both demonstrations are likely to be well attended. Additionally, precedent suggests both groups of demonstrators will stage impromptu marches through the city center, increasing the likelihood of localized disruptions and scuffles between the rival groups.

A heavy security contingent will almost certainly be deployed to keep opposing demonstrators separate, as well as around nearby government buildings. Large crowds and related security measures will likely prompt localized disruptions in the city center, particularly on Baghramyan Avenue. Security forces have typically responded quickly to any violence or particularly disruptive actions. Clashes are likely between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as between opposing activists. While bystanders are unlikely to be targeted in any violence, they would face a significant threat in the vicinity.

Context

Poltiical tensions have escalated sharply in Yerevan in recent days after senior military officers, including the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, joined calls for Pashinyan's resignation. In response, the prime minister immediately led a large demonstration in Yerevan Feb. 25 during which he denounced the military's attempt to influence domestic politics. Although Pashinyan's demonstration was well supported, large opposition demonstrations also took place throughout the city the same day. Both Pashinyan and the opposition have continued to organize gatherings in recent days, and further gatherings are highly likely in days to come, as the fallout from Armenia's military defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh continues to play out in domestic politics.