Armenia: Political protests likely nationwide ahead of snap elections June 20 /update 2

Event

Political activists are likely to hold demonstrations in the coming weeks in the run-up to the scheduled June 20 election. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called the elections March 18 following months of disruptive protests after the agreement ending Armenia’s conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Opposition activists have held protests in central Yerevan, including on Republic Square and outside government facilities, and will likely continue to do so. Demonstrations by rival political activists, including government supporters, are also likely ahead of polling day. The presence of large numbers of people and associated disruptions could prompt localized disruptions in the capital. In addition, opposition activists could also stage roadblock protests on intercity highways, particularly the M1 Highway around Gyumri, to demand the return of individuals reportedly captured by Azerbaijani forces during post-ceasefire clashes.

Authorities will probably maintain a very high security posture near potential protest sites in the coming weeks; security forces will almost certainly respond quickly to any disruptive demonstrations. While the majority of related protests will likely take place in prominent squares and near government buildings in Yerevan, rallies and other gatherings could also occur in other cities nationwide, such as Gyumri, Vanadzor, and Vagharshapat; further roadblock protests could prompt traffic disruptions on intercity highways at short notice. Clashes are possible between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as between rival political activists.

Context

Pashinyan has been under intense public pressure to resign since the Nov. 10 peace deal, which the Armenian public essentially views as an act of surrender to Azerbaijan. Seventeen political opposition parties, including Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), have called for Pashinyan's resignation. On Feb. 25, senior army officers called for him to step down, prompting Pashinyan to allege the military was attempting a coup and dismiss the country’s most senior officer; the dismissal has been overturned by President Armen Sarksyan.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in Armenia, especially Yerevan, ahead of June 20. Avoid any political demonstrations; keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Heed the instructions of local authorities. If violence erupts nearby, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure non-governmental building. Check the route status of intercity highways before setting out and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities.