Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions remain high in Syunik Province, Armenia, as of May 14, following reported Azerbaijani infiltration near Goris

Event

Tensions will likely remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan through at least mid-May following a reported Azerbaijani infiltration approximately 10 km (6 miles) northwest of Goris in Syunik Province May 12. Armenian officials have accused Azerbaijani troops of crossing the border near the Sev Lich Sanctuary, which is shared between the two countries, and of attempting to stake a claim to Armenian territory under the pretext of a demarcation issue. Azerbaijani troops reportedly advanced more than 3 km (2 miles) before Armenian forces were deployed to the area. Armenian troops conducted unspecified tactical maneuvers, prompting the withdrawal of Azerbaijan troops. No clashes took place.

An elevated Armenian troop presence will likely remain in the area over the coming days. Security forces may erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely.

Context

Acting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan convened an emergency meeting of his security council May 13. As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incident. Azerbaijan has dismissed the accusations as provocative and insists it is committed to defusing tensions through dialogue. Any Azerbaijani attack on Armenian territory would likely prompt a response and/or intervention from Russia, and is accordingly assessed to be unlikely.

Advice

Avoid travel to the affected area until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas of Syunik Province in the coming days. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.