27 Aug 2021 | 10:14 AM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Storm Nora tracking off the Pacific west coast, early Aug. 27 /update 1
Tropical Storm Nora tracking off the Pacific west coast of Mexico Aug. 27. Impacts likely in coastal areas through Aug. 31.
Event
Tropical Storm Nora is tracking west-northwest in the western North Pacific Ocean, Aug. 26. As of 04:00 CDT Aug. 27, the system's center of circulation was approximately 400 km (250 miles) south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a category one hurricane by afternoon Aug. 28 while tracking in a northwesterly direction along Mexico's Pacific coastline and make a close approach to western Jalisco State, Mexico, evening Aug. 28. The storm is likely to continue tracking northwest make another close approach to Baja California Sur State, Mexico, early Aug. 30. Nora is forecast to weaken rapidly from early Aug. 30, as it tracks northwest just off the eastern coast of Baja California Sur State through early Sep. 1. Though landfall is currently not predicted, some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
Government Advisories
As of 04:00 CDT Aug. 27, authorities have issued advisories for the following areas:
Hurricane Watch: Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes
Tropical Storm Warning: Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes
Tropical Storm Watch: North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Storm Nora will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas along western Mexico through at least Aug. 31. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 20.5-30.5 cm (8-12 inches) over the coastal sections of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco states in Mexico through at least Aug. 29.
Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding if the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the storm could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines.
Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Aug. 31 in coastal areas of western Mexico. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane or tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
Resources
US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service (Spanish)