Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions to remain high through at least the end of 2021 following cross-border incidents /update 6

Event

Border tensions will remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan through at least the end of 2021 following several border incidents in recent months. The Azerbaijan Defense Ministry claimed that an Azeri soldier was killed by Armenian sniper fire near the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh late Oct. 14; Armenian officials have denied the claims. Nevertheless, crossborder fire was reported in several areas on the day and Armenia has announced that six Armenian soldiers were wounded by Azeri fire.

The violence is the latest since July 28, when a Russian-brokered ceasefire came into effect following cross-border violence near Sotk in Armenia's Gegharkunik Province which is adjacent to Azerbaijan's Kalbajar District. Each side accuses the other of failing to comply with the ceasefire.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming months. Security forces could erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku regained control of several regions adjacent to the Armenian provinces of Gegharkunik and Syunik. However, despite the agreement, a dispute over the demarcation of the border between the two nations persists. While several fatal exchanges of fire have taken place since mid-July, no significant armed clashes have flared up. Azerbaijani officials have also accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District.

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents. The CSTO has refrained from issuing a collective response. Russia is currently brokering talks between the opposing nations to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. A resumption of large-scale, direct conflict is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming months. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.