Greece, Turkey: Severe weather forecast acrossboth countries through at least Feb. 3

Event

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Greece and Turkey through at least Feb. 3. The Hellenic Meteorological Service has warned that weather conditions will deteriorate across much of the country from Feb. 1, with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, snowfall over central and northern mountainous areas, and strong winds in coastal areas expected. Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, snowfall, and avalanches are also forecast across much of Turkey.

For Greece, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast in the Ionian Islands, Epirus, western Sterea, western Peloponnese, eastern Macedonia, eastern Aegean, and Thrace regions Feb. 1-2. Snowfall is forecast in western Macedonia and in mountainous and semi-mountainous areas of Epirus, central and eastern Macedonia, and Thrace regions Feb. 1, as well as strong winds and rough seas in coastal areas. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast to spread to Thessaly, the Sporades Islands, Evia, eastern Sterea, and eastern Peloponnese regions Feb. 2, as well as Crete, the Cyclades, and Dodecanese islands late Feb. 2. Heavy snowfall is expected in mountainous areas of mainland Greece and the peninsulas of central and northern Greece Feb. 2, as well as at lower levels in Thrace Region. Strong winds will prevail in the Ionian and southeastern Aegean islands Feb. 2. Further heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast in Crete, the Cyclades, and the Dodecanese islands Feb. 3, as well as in eastern Sterea and eastern Peloponnese regions early Feb. 3. Heavy snowfall is expected to continue in mountainous and semi-mountainous regions of central and northern Greece and at lower altitudes in Thrace. Strong winds will also continue in coastal regions.

As of Jan. 31, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings across Turkey:

• Orange thunderstorm warnings (the middle tier on a three-tier scale): Canakkale Province.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Aydin, Balikesir, and Izmir provinces.

• Yellow snowfall warnings: Adana, Adiyaman, Aksaray, Antalya, Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Kayseri, Kirsehir, Mersin, Nevsehir, Osmaniye, Sivas, Tokat, and Yozgat provinces.

• Yellow rainfall warnings: Adana, Adiyaman, Antalya, Edirne, Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Mersin, and Osmaniye provinces.

• Yellow avalanche warnings: Agri, Amasya, Ardahan, Artvin, Bartin, Bayburt, Bingol, Bitlis, Bolu, Corum, Duzce, Elazig, Erzincan, Erzurum, Giresun, Gumushane, Karabuk, Kars, Kastamonu, Malatya, Mus, Ordu, Rize, Samsun, Siirt, Sinop, Sirnak, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, Tunceli, Van, and Zonguldak provinces.

• Yellow wind warnings: Afyonkarahisar, Aydin, Balikesir, Bursa, Canakkale, Corum, Denizli, Izmir, Kutahya, Manisa, Mugla, and Usak provinces.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Both countries suffered severe disruption during winter storm Elpis, which struck the region Jan. 23-27. Heavy snowfall caused thousands of motorists to become stranded and flights were disrupted in Athens and Istanbul.

Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could bring rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across the affected areas in the coming days. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Due to adverse weather, power outages could occur across Greece and Turkey.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Hellenic National Meteorological Service (Greek)
Turkish State Meteorological Service (Turkish)