Greece, Turkey: Winter weather forecast across Greece and Turkey through at least Jan. 27 /update 3

Event

Successive weather systems named Elpis in Greece are forecast to bring heavy snowfall and cold temperatures across Greece and Turkey through at least Jan. 27.

The systems are forecast to bring very low temperatures and heavy snowfall across Greece, including the plains of northern and eastern Greece and the Aegean islands. Strong winds are forecast in eastern Greece. Forecast models indicate very low temperatures of less than 2-3 C (35-37 F) across Greece through Jan. 26. Frost is likely, especially in the northern and central regions. Heavy snowfall is likely in the central and northern Aegean, Evia, eastern Thessaly, and eastern Sterea early Jan. 24 before spreading to the eastern Peloponnese, southern Aegean, Crete, and the Dodecanese later that day. Occasional snowfall is forecast in Macedonia and Thrace Jan. 24. The snowfall is likely to ease in northern Greece Jan. 25 but is likely to continue over the rest of the country through the end of the day.

The system is impacting several parts of Turkey as of Jan. 24, and extremely cold and snowy weather is expected to prevail over much of the country through at least Jan. 27. Heavy snow has halted all flights at Istanbul International Airport (IST), and operations to clear snow from the runway are ongoing late Jan. 24. Due to the weather, flights at Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SAW) were also reduced by around 15 percent Jan. 24 due to the weather. Vessel passage through Istanbul’s Bosphorus Strait was temporarily suspended due to poor visibility caused by severe fog. Several roads have also been closed to traffic, including the E-5 highway between Beylikduzu and Buyukcekmece. Reports indicate thousands of people have been stranded across the country due to heavy snowfall.

Government Advisories

As of early Jan. 24, authorities have issued the following warnings:

• Red snowfall warnings (the highest level on a four-tier scale): Attica, Central Greece, North Aegean, and Thessaly regions in Greece.

• Red low-temperature warnings: Western Macedonia Region in Greece.

• Orange snowfall warnings: Antalya, Istanbul, and Mugla provinces in Turkey.

• Orange low-temperature warnings: the rest of Greece.

• Yellow snowfall warnings: Bingol, Elazig, Erzincan, and Tunceli provinces in Turkey.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could bring rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across the affected area in the coming days. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Due to adverse weather, power outages could occur across Greece and western and central Turkey.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Hellenic National Meteorological Service (Greek)
Turkish State Meteorological Service (Turkish)