10 Jun 2022 | 03:41 PM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather forecast to continue across much of the country through at least June 13 /update 1
Severe weather forecast across much of Mexico through at least June 13. Disruptions due to flooding ongoing in some states.
Event
A combination of weather systems are forecast to bring adverse conditions across much of Mexico through at least June 13. The most severe weather is forecast in southern and southeastern regions, with heavy rainfall forecast over the coming days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible over northern, western, and central regions, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong winds and possible dust storms are forecast over northern regions and high temperatures are expected over much of the country, especially in some northern states.
A tropical wave moving over southern Mexico will interact with moisture generated by the monsoon trough and a low pressure area with the possibility of cyclonic development located south of the Central Pacific states to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Veracruz states. Daily rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are possible in parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Veracruz June 13. Totals of 5-7.5 (2-3 inches) are possible in parts of Chiapas June 10-13, Guerrero and Oaxaca June 10-12, and Michoacan June 12. The intense rainfall could lead to rising river levels and flooding in low-lying areas, as well as triggering landslides on unstable slopes.
A low pressure channel over the center and north of the country will also likely bring less severe rainfall and thunderstorms over the northwest, west, and center of the country. The storms may be accompanied by hail in parts of Chihuahua and Sonora states. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea will also bring periods of rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula. An anticyclonic circulation in the middle levels of the atmosphere will lead to extremely high temperatures across much of Mexico in the coming days, especially in the northwest, north, and northeast of the country. Temperatures above 45 C (113 F) are possible in parts of Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, and Tamaulipas states. Strong winds are also expected in many northern and coastal regions and could be accompanied by dust storms in some northern states.
Disruptions have been reported across parts of the country due to adverse weather in recent days. Heavy rainfall in San Cristobal de las Casas Municipality in Chiapas State June 8-9 triggered flooding that affected thousands of people. Several roads have been flooded and hundreds of homes and some schools have been damaged as floodwaters reached up to 1.5 meters (5 feet) in some areas. Several other municipalities in Chiapas have witnessed flooding in recent days, including Amatan. Motozintla, Ostuacan, and Salto del Agua. Flooding and power outages have also been reported in Morelia, the capital of Michoacan State, following heavy rainfall early June 9. Strong storms late June 7 felled trees and caused flooding in the city of Oaxaca in Oaxaca State and heavy rainfall early June 8 triggered flooding in parts of Mexico City.
Hazardous Conditions
The active weather systems could produce rounds of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of Mexico in the coming days. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash and areal flooding in some areas. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected regions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
