Armenia, Azerbaijan: Further sporadic violence likely along border areas in the coming months following clashes Aug. 3

Event

Further sporadic escalations of violence between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces along the de-facto border between the two countries remain likely in the coming weeks. Armenian-aligned officials in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region claimed an Azerbaijani drone strike Aug. 3 killed at least two soldiers and wounded 14 others. At the same time, Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense officials claimed that they had suppressed an Armenian attack near Nagorno-Karabakh, which reportedly killed one Azerbaijani soldier. Authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh issued a partial military mobilization Aug. 3 in response to the incident.

Such incidents are common; each side frequently accuses the other of failing to comply with the truce. Clashes in the Kalbajar area Jan. 11 left two Armenian and one Azerbaijani serviceman dead. Violence near Armenia's Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces Nov. 16 also resulted in the death of 15 Armenian and seven Azerbaijani soldiers.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming weeks. Security forces could erect checkpoints and temporarily close key routes leading to the border; localized disruptions are probable at short notice.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku regained control of several regions adjacent to Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. However, a dispute over the demarcation of the border between the two nations persists and there have been several fatal exchanges of fire along the border. Azerbaijani officials have also accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming months. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.