Bay of Campeche: Tropical Depression Karl tracking south-southwestwards in the Bay of Campeche, of late Oct. 14 /update 4

Event

Tropical Depression Karl is tracking south-southwestward in the Bay of Campeche late Oct. 14. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 120 km (75 miles) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Tabasco State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly as it tracks south-southwestward early Oct. 15 before making landfall near Paraiso in Tabasco State mid-day Oct. 15. The system will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Oct. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Oct. 14, authorities have rescinded all tropical storm warnings and watches along the coast of Mexico. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will produce rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) in Chiapas and Tabasco, 7.5-15 (3-6 inches) in Campeche and Veracruz. Flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain, are possible in affected areas. Furthermore, swells are likely to affect portions of the Mexican coast over the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The SMN has warned of winds gusting around 50-60 kph (31-37 mph) and waves of 1-3 meters (3-10 feet) along the coasts of Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz. Authorities closed the port of Frontera in Tabasco State Oct. 14.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)