Bay of Campeche: Tropical Storm Karl tracking northward off the eastern coast of Mexico, Oct. 12 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Karl is tracking northward in the Bay of Campeche Oct. 12. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 320 km (200 miles) north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain its strength as it tracks north-northwestward before making a sharp turn southward late Oct. 12. The system is then expected to slightly lose strength as it tracks south-southeastward and then southwestward in the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico's Veracruz State Oct. 13-14. Karl is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm between Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz State late Oct. 14-early Oct. 15. The system will then weaken rapidly as it continues to track southwestward over the state and dissipate early Oct. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Oct. 12, authorities had issued a tropical storm watch for coastal areas from Tuxpan in Veracruz State southward along the coast to Frontera in Tabasco State. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will produce rainfall totals of 7.5-17.5 cm (3-7 inches), with localized maximum rainfall totals of up to 30 cm (12 inches), over parts of Verzazruz and Tabasco states and totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with localized maximums of up to 15 cm (6 inches), over parts of Chiapas State through late Oct. 14. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has also warned of heavy rainfall over parts of Puebla and Oaxaca states, as well as isolated downpours over other parts of eastern, central, and southeastern Mexico. Flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain, are possible in affected areas. Tropical storm-strength winds may affect areas along Mexico's coast within the tropical storm watch area beginning Oct. 14. Furthermore, swells are likely to affect portions of the Mexican coast over the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)