19 Oct 2022 | 12:07 PM UTC
Brazil: Adverse weather forecast across northern, southern, and western parts of the country through at least Oct. 23 /update 1
Severe weather forecast across northern, southern, and western Brazil through Oct. 23. Disruptions due to flooding ongoing in Parana State.
Event
Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are forecast across parts of northern, southern, and western Brazil through at least Oct. 23. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in affected areas.
As of early Oct. 19, Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:
Orange warnings for heavy rainfall (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Parts of Acre, far southeastern Amapa, Amazonas, western Mato Grosso, far northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Para, Rondonia, and Roraima states. Between 3-6 cm (1-2 inches) of rain per hour or 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain per day and winds of 60-100 kph (37-62 mph) are forecast in the orange warning areas.
Yellow warnings for storms and heavy rainfall: Across the rest of the affected area. Between 2-3 cm (0.8-1.2 inches) of rain per hour or up to 5 cm (2 inches) of rain per day and winds of 40-60 kph (25-37 mph) are forecast in the yellow warning areas.
Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days. Further showers and storms are forecast over parts of the affected area through at least Oct. 23.
Disruptions due to flooding and landslides are ongoing across parts of Parana State as of Oct. 19 following heavy rainfall and storms in recent days. Authorities have reported seven weather-related fatalities across the state. Nearly 22,000 people have been affected by the flooding across 38 municipalities and more than 1,000 have been displaced. Around 1,400 homes have been damaged, with southwestern and western regions of the state among the worst affected.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. In developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems, additional urban flooding is also possible. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides remain possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages and disruptions to telecommunications services are likely where significant flooding, landslides, or strong winds impact utility networks.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.
Severe weather could also trigger intermittent flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region, though these are unlikely to be severe or prolonged. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track inundation. Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
