20 Oct 2022 | 11:27 AM UTC
Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression 19E tracking westward off Mexico as of early Oct. 20
TD 19E tracking westward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 20; landfall forecast over Nayarit State, Mexico, Oct. 23.
Event
Tropical Depression 19E is tracking westward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 20. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 290 km (180 miles) south of Zihuatanejo, Guerrero State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm and then a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks west-northwestward and then northwestward roughly parallel to Mexico's western coast Oct. 20-22. The storm is expected to briefly reach Category 2 hurricane strength as it turns to track northward late Oct. 22 before weakening as it tracks close to or over the coast of Jalisco State early Oct. 23 and then makes landfall over Nayarit State later in the day. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks overland across Nayarit State and into southern Durango State late Oct. 23-early Oct. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 20, authorities have not yet issued any coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming hours and days. Forecast models indicate the storm's outer rain bands may produce rainfall totals of 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacan states over the coming days. Heavy rainfall is expected over coastal areas of Jalisco, Nayarit (including Islas Marais), and southeastern Sinaloa states Oct. 22-23. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico as of Oct. 20 and are expected to spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Oct. 21. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
