Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression Lisa tracking northwestward over Bay of Campeche as of Nov. 4 /update 7

Event

Tropical Depression Lisa is tracking northwestward over the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico Nov. 4. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 300 km (185 miles) west of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen briefly into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward over the western Bay of Campeche Nov. 4 before weakening to a depression once more as it tracks north-northwestward late Nov. 4-early Nov. 5. The storm is subsequently forecast to slow its movement and make a sharp turn to the east and then south-southeast early Nov. 5-early Nov. 6 before dissipating. No further landfall is forecast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 4 authorities have discontinued all coastal watches and warnings associated with the storm system. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days. Forecast models indicate rainfall will continue to diminish. Additional rainfall of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) is likely across southeastern Mexico through Nov. 4.

Authorities have reported some minor damage to at least four hospitals in Campeche State due to heavy rainfall associated with the passing of the storm. Schools were suspended in parts of Tabasco, Campeche, and Tabasco states Nov. 3; however, classes have resumed in the latter as of Nov. 4.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)