Myanmar: Armed clashes between military and anti-regime groups likely to continue in parts of country through at least early March /update 2

Event

Instability will likely continue to impact parts of Myanmar through at least early March following the February 2021 coup, in which the military (Tatmadaw) ousted the democratically elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD). Fighting between military troops and armed ethnic groups and the National Unity Government's (NUG) People’s Defense Force (PDF) continues, especially in the country's northern and eastern states and regions. Pro-democracy fighters have carried out bombings and targeted killings across several urban centers. Further security-related disruptions are likely over the coming months as general elections are slated to occur sometime in 2023. Utility outages can occur on short notice.

Armed Clashes
Tatmadaw troops continue to clash with ethnic armed groups and PDF units in parts of Myanmar. Fighting has been most intense in the eastern and northern areas of the country, especially in the following locations:

• Bago Region: Kyaukkyi and Mone townships

• Chin State: Falam, Hakha, Kanpetlet, Matupi, Mindat, and Paletwa townships

• Kachin State: Hpakant, Mohnyin, Momauk, and Shweku townships

• Kayah State: Demoso, Hpruso, and Loikaw townships

• Kayin State: Kawkareik and Myawaddy townships

• Magway Region: Magway, Myaing, Pakokku, Pauk, Taungdwingyi, and Yesagyo townships

• Mon State: Kyaikto, Thaton, and Ye townships

• Rakhine State: Northern regions, including Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Maungdaw, Minbya, Ponnagyun, and Rathedaung townships

• Sagaing Region: Indaw, Kale, Khin-u, Monywa, Myin-mu, Chaung-U, Pale, Salingyi, Shwebo, and Yinmabin townships

• Shan State: Kokang Self-Administered Zone, Kyaukme, Mabein, Muse, and Pekon townships

PDF command structures and training have improved, and PDF fighters often attack pro-regime forces and installations. The military may respond to PDF attacks with artillery and airstrikes to target the armed group's members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. Junta authorities also provide funding and equipment to militias to combat PDF units and other anti-regime groups. Clashes have displaced tens of thousands of residents in affected areas. Authorities will likely maintain heightened security, including checkpoints and road closures, in areas where fighting occurs. Violence will also likely impact transport in areas where it occurs, especially roads connecting townships. Authorities may cut mobile communications in areas where fighting has intensified. Officials may impose or tighten curfew measures on short notice in areas that experience an increase in armed clashes.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and targeted assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw and sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Yangon, Bago, and Mandalay. Some activists have also targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions in urban areas have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks continue to be on a small scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Additional blasts will likely continue to occur across Myanmar, possibly prompting authorities to impose heightened security and resulting in localized disruptions at the incident sites.

Civil Unrest
Pro-democracy protesters continue to hold sporadic demonstrations against the Tatmadaw in urban centers like Yangon and Mandalay, though restrictions on internet services have delayed reporting of many rallies. Spikes in rallies are probable on holidays and other significant dates, such as hearings against NLD leaders such as former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Future rallies will likely continue to occur near government buildings, monuments, and public squares nationwide. Military and police personnel may attempt to forcibly disperse protesters using water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, or live ammunition. Activists often block roads near demonstration sites to limit military personnel's mobility.

Disruptions
Infrastructure and utility disruptions have been reported nationwide. Civilians and militant groups opposed to the Tatmadaw may target telecommunications infrastructure, potentially causing localized disruptions. Power outages have occurred in several cities, including Yangon. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions.

Context

The coup occurred in February 2021, when military personnel detained several senior NLD members, including Aung San Suu Kyi and then-President Win Myint, on charges of election fraud. The claims lack significant supporting evidence, and the Union Election Commission has denied the allegations; international observers have also rejected the claims. Aung San Suu Kyi has received several prison sentences related to various charges, including corruption and violating COVID-19-related restrictions; pro-democracy activists say that the accusations are politically motivated. While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other international organizations continue to call for cooperation and an end to the violence, such efforts are unlikely to achieve progress in the immediate term.

Advice

Exercise extreme caution if operating in Myanmar. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Purchase essential items and ensure several days' supply when possible. Collect essential items - including identification and any important legal and travel documents - in a "go-bag" that can be easily accessed. Monitor local developments closely. If a demonstration or fighting occurs nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building, and stay away from windows.