Europe: Conflict-related sanctions and restrictions continue to cause disruptions throughout the region as of Feb. 16 /update 108

Event

Sanctions and restrictions imposed by various governments in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to cause disruptions across Europe as of Feb. 16.

Travel Restrictions
On Feb. 13, the US State Department re-issued a travel advisory, instructing US citizens to avoid travel to Russia, and for those US citizens residing or traveling in Russia to depart immediately. The advice cited the threat of Russian security services arresting US citizens on spurious charges and singling out US nationals for detention and harassment. Other governments, including those of France, the UK, Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, and Poland, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those currently in that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so. Also Feb. 13, French authorities reiterated that it strongly advised its citizens against traveling to Belarus and encouraged those in the country to leave.

Authorities in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and the Czech Republic have imposed restrictions on Russian citizens who hold Schengen tourist and work visas from entering their countries. Additionally, on Feb. 10, Polish authorities indefinitely closed the Bobrowniki border crossing point with Belarus. On Feb. 16, the Lithuanian government ended a border control agreement with Belarus. The decision ends formal cooperation between the border staff of the two countries. Road and rail crossings will also be affected. Lithuanian authorities will close the Stasilai-Benyakoni checkpoint in order to install increased measures to check for contraband.

Moscow has banned certain categories of EU officials from entering Russia in response to EU sanctions and continued weapons shipments to Ukraine; the ban was further widened to additional categories on Jan. 17. The ban includes unspecified senior EU military officials, law-enforcement officials, citizens engaged in promoting anti-Russian sentiment, and representatives of European defense companies involved in delivering military equipment to Ukraine.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
On Feb. 14, authorities in Moldova declared that Russia was planning a coup to overthrow the government through sabotage and attacks on state institutions. Chisinau Airport (KIV) was also temporarily closed over security concerns on Feb. 14; it is unclear if the closure was directly related to Russian destabilization efforts. Prior to that, on Feb. 10, former Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned, citing the challenges of implementing the government's reform agenda amid the economic and energy supply disruptions prompted by the conflict in Ukraine.

Regional authorities in Russia have implemented a "high" (yellow) terror threat level in regions bordering Ukraine, including Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, as well as in the Russian-annexed city of Sevastopol. This is the middle level on a three-tier scale where "increased" (blue) is the lowest level and "critical" (red) is the highest. Cross-border artillery shelling occasionally strikes border villages in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk oblasts, often in response to artillery fire from Russia, and there are reports of covert Ukrainian activity in Russian territory.

Russia has also increased the terrorism threat level to the maximum "security level no. 3" at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO), Domodedovo Airport (DME), and Vnukovo International Airport (VKO) in Moscow in addition to Pulkovo Airport (LED) in Saint Petersburg. Enhanced security measures, including additional patrols and checkpoints, and intensive baggage, vehicle, and passenger checks are likely while security level no. 3 is in force, prompting possible passenger processing delays.

Several countries bordering Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, Latvia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Moldova has extended its state of emergency through March, and Latvia has extended its state of emergency on the Belarus border through May 10. Nevertheless, Moldova, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return. Belarus has also implemented enhanced security measures on its border with Ukraine.

Massed Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure have increased the likelihood of collateral damage in adjacent countries. Missiles and missile debris have landed in Poland (Nov. 15), Belarus (Dec. 30), and Moldova (Jan. 14). Such incidents can be caused by malfunctions or debris following missile engagements; they are increasingly likely given the numbers of both offensive and defensive systems that are operational during massed Russian airstrikes. On Feb. 10, Ukrainian authorities claimed that during a mass-missile strike, Russian missiles overflew Moldovan airspace.

Anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. There have been no reported incidents of security threats to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus; however, low-level harassment, increased scrutiny, or coercion of foreign nationals by officials are possible. Russian activists occasionally hold low-level gatherings in Russia denouncing the conflict; Russian security services typically quickly and forcefully disperse such gatherings and regularly arrest participants.

Cyber Threats
Russian-backed hackers have maintained a constant campaign of cyber attacks against Ukrainian, NATO, EU, and other western entities, principally targeting government and defense-related organizations. Cyber security analysts have identified Russian military intelligence as becoming more aggressive and more direct in the nature of its attacks. Microsoft's Security Threat Intelligence Center has attributed cyber attacks on Ukrainian and Polish transport and security organizations to hackers backed by the GRU, Russia's military intelligence directorate.

Transport Disruptions
As of early February, Turkish authorities announced that they would suspend flights by Russian-operated Boeing and Airbus aircraft due to the application of international sanctions, which will significantly reduce air travel between the two countries.

Reciprocal flight bans and airspace closures remain in effect between Russia and numerous western-aligned countries, including EU member states, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. The EU has also banned overflights of its airspace by Belarusian airlines. Ukrainian airspace remains closed to all commercial air traffic.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has indefinitely suspended flight operations at 10 airports in southwestern parts of the country and at one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea. Impacted facilities include Anapa Airport (AAQ), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Elista International Airport (ESL), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea.

Russia has extended a ban on road freight transportation for companies based in the EU, Norway, Ukraine, and the UK through June 30. This applies to road freight traveling to Russia and transiting Russia toward third countries. Various goods are exempt from the ban. The Russian Ministry of Transport has declared that the delivery of goods from these countries by road will be carried out by trans-shipping the freight to domestic carriers in border areas in the Pskov, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, and Murmansk oblasts, the Republic of Karelia, and Saint Petersburg. The regulations do not apply to the Kaliningrad region.

The International Maritime Organization has issued advisories concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Black Sea's Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. These three countries have proficient naval ordnance disposal teams that typically tow mines to low-traffic areas for safe destruction. International sanctions ban Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships from accessing EU, US, and UK ports.

Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine agreed to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative until March. The UN-backed agreement, originally brokered between the aforementioned nations on July 22, provides for the safe passage of grain and other foodstuffs from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne to an inspection point near Istanbul via a so-called "blue corridor." The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Turkey monitors and implements this accord, which lifted a de facto Russian naval blockade of Ukraine.

Sanctions and Diplomatic Relations
Diplomatic relations continue to deteriorate between western countries and Russia. Multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns. On Feb. 2, Austria expelled four Russian diplomats for suspected espionage activity, and in late January, Estonia and Russia expelled each other’s ambassadors. The Latvian government announced that it would also reduce its diplomatic representation in Moscow from mid-February. Such tit-for-tat moves may reduce available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

The EU has tightened sanctions targeting Russian oil exports as of Feb. 8 as part of the bloc's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On Feb. 5, the EU imposed a ban on imports of Russian-origin diesel, gasoline, and other fuel products. Additionally, the EU has agreed - along with Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the US - to observe a price cap on other Russian oil products sold to non-Western nations. There is a 55-day winddown period for Russian oil loaded onto vessels before Feb. 5 provided the oil is unloaded at its final destination before April 1.

The EU adopted a ninth package of sanctions against Russia on Dec. 16 and is currently considering a tenth package; several other governments are imposing similar measures. Sanctions typically target Russian financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, private businesses, and specific individuals using a wide array of measures, in addition to imposing restrictions on the import and export of goods and services with Russia. EU sanctions and other restrictions apply to 1,386 individuals and 171 private and state-owned entities. Russian authorities have implemented countersanctions and other measures in retaliation.

Aside from governmental sanctions, hundreds of companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. Financial services, including PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Western Union, have suspended operations in the country. American Express and Western Union have also suspended all operations in Belarus.

Russia has stopped supplying natural gas to Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria. Russian authorities may decide to restrict further or entirely cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries. The volume of Russian gas shipped to Europe via Ukraine has also dropped by around one-third.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers or other officials. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa, if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.