Arabian Peninsula: Adverse weather forecast across parts of Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen through at least May 24

Event

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and dust storm are forecast across parts of the Arabian Peninsula through at least May 24. The affected areas include parts of Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen. Heavy downpours could trigger flash and urban flooding in parts of the region and strong winds could generate blowing dust and rough seas.

The Oman Directorate General of Meteorology has forecast isolated heavy downpours and thunderstorms across the Al Hajar mountains May 22-24, including parts of Ad Dhahirah, Al Batinah North, Al Batinah South, Ash Sharqiyah North, Ash Sharqiyah South, and southern Muscat governorates. Isolated showers are also forecast over parts of Dhofar Governorate May 22-24. A heavy rain alert has been issued over the affected areas May 22, with rainfall totals of 2-4.5 cm (0.8-1.8 inches) expected. Strong winds may also generate dust storms in arid parts of the country.

The Saudi Arabia National Center for Meteorology has issued the following weather warnings across the country as of May 22:

• Red heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Parts of northern and southern Aseer and central Mecca provinces.

• Orange heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings: Much of the rest of Aseer and parts of central and eastern Al Bahah, central, eastern, and southern Jazan, and central and eastern Mecca provinces.

• Orange dust storm warnings: Parts of northern Al Jowf and northern Northern Borders provinces.

• Yellow heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings: Parts of western Al Bahah, northern Eastern, northern Jazan, western Mecca, southern Medina, western Najran, and central, northern, southern, and western Riyadh provinces.

• Yellow dust storm warnings: Parts of central, eastern, and southern Al Jowf, central Northern Borders, and central, eastern, and northern Tabuk provinces.

As of May 22, the UAE's National Center of Meteorology has issued orange warnings for convective clouds and associated rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough seas across parts of eastern and northern Abu Dhabi Emirate. Yellow warnings for convective clouds and associated rainfall, thunderstorms, and dust storms have been issued across much of the UAE.

The Yemen Meteorological Service has warned of moderate-to-heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms across western mountainous regions May 22-23, including parts of Ad-Dali', Al Mahwit, 'Amran, Dhamar, Hajjah, Ibb, Raymah, Sa'adah, Sana'a, and Ta'izz governorates. Rainfall of varying intensity is expected across much of the rest of the country.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Seek updated information on weather and road conditions before driving through areas where severe weather is forecast. Plan accordingly for potential freight delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Do not attempt to drive through flooded areas. Review contingency plans. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Oman Directorate General of Meteorology
National Center for Meteorology - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
UAE National Center of Meteorology