Turkiye: Political rallies likely nationwide through at least early June after incumbent president reelected May 28 /update 2

Event

Political rallies are likely nationwide through at least early June following the reelection of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the second round of a run-off presidential election on May 28. Large gatherings in support of the president-elect were reported across several cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, with some events attracting tens of thousands of participants.

Additional related demonstrations concerning the election results will likely occur in Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir over the short term. Larger gatherings typically occur in public parks, stadiums, and designated rally grounds - somewhat limiting ground travel services. Although closely contested, the election results will likely lead to mounting tensions nationwide.

Authorities may monitor any such gatherings and maintain a heightened security posture during larger rallies. Security measures will likely be further enhanced from May 28. Large crowds and associated security measures will likely prompt localized transport disruptions. Clashes between police and protesters, as well as between counterdemonstrators, cannot be ruled out.

Context

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received an estimated 52. percent of the votes on May 28 after only receiving 49 percent on the first May 14 presidential election results. The constitution requires that the winning candidate secures over 50 percent of the vote. His chief rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the presidential candidate for the Nation Alliance bloc of opposition parties, secured 45 percent in the first round.

Further intense political activism is likely following the second round of election results. The polarized political environment and partisan influence on state institutions increase the likelihood of escalation to violence. Turkiye is also subject to an underlying high threat from terrorism; terrorist groups could target the elections or election rallies due to their high-profile nature.

Civil unrest will likely persist over the coming days, particularly in the likelihood that the losing side contests the results, prompting possible security force crackdowns and political purges.

Advice

Avoid rallies and other related demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Allow extra time to reach destinations in the vicinity of mass events. Heed instructions from security services; leave the area immediately at the first sign of any security disturbance.