Turkiye: Rival presidential candidates likely to hold nationwide political rallies through mid-May /update 1

Event

Turkiye will hold a run-off presidential election on May 28, following an inconclusive first round on May 14. Further election-related events will take place in the run-up to the poll. Gatherings linked to presidential candidates are likely to be particularly well-attended, with some events numbering in the tens of thousands. The largest events will likely take place in Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir on weekends leading up to the elections. However, major election rallies typically take place in public parks, stadiums, and designated rally grounds, somewhat limiting ground travel disruptions.

The election is likely to be closely contested; mounting tensions and counterprotests are possible nationwide. Authorities will likely deploy police to monitor and facilitate all events. Security measures will likely be further enhanced on the second election day on May 28 and in its aftermath if the polls lead to a contested result. Large crowds and related security measures will likely cause localized traffic and public transportation disruptions. Security forces will likely react swiftly to any counterprotests; clashes with protesters cannot be ruled out.

Context

The first presidential election, May 14, resulted in around 49 percent for the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The constitution requires that the winning candidate secures over 50 percent of the vote. His chief rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the presidential candidate for the Nation Alliance bloc of opposition parties, secured 45 percent in the first round.

Further intense political activism is likely in the run-up to the election. The polarized political environment and partisan influence on state institutions increase the likelihood of escalation to violence. Turkiye is also subject to an underlying high threat from terrorism; terrorist groups could target the elections or election rallies due to their high-profile nature.

Significantly tightened security measures will be in place nationwide to facilitate the elections and mitigate these threats; they will be most noticeable around election facilities and political events.

Civil unrest will likely persist following the elections, particularly in the likelihood that the losing side contests the results, prompting possible security force crackdowns and political purges.

Advice

Avoid rallies and demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Allow extra time to reach destinations in the vicinity of mass events. Heed instructions from security services; leave the area immediately at the first sign of any security disturbance.