India: Ongoing tensions likely to persist across Manipur State through at least late August /update 9

Event

Ongoing tensions between tribal and non-tribal communities that have occurred since May 3 are likely to persist across Manipur State through at least late August. The violence has left over 160 people killed, tens of thousands of civilians impacted, and at least 2,000 residences damaged. Primarily affected districts include Bishnupur, Churachandpur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Jiribam, Kakching, Kangpokpi, Pherzawl, Tengnoupal, and Thoubal. Reports of renewed arson, vandalism, and other forms of violence have occurred in several areas. Previous high-profile attacks have targeted the residences, offices, and vehicles of political leaders and security officials.

Effective Aug. 17, officials have relaxed daytime curfew hours in Imphal East and Imphal West districts 05:00-18:00 to facilitate public movement for essential services. Authorities have restored regular internet services in several areas but have continued to restrict mobile internet operations in Manipur since July 25; security personnel have repeatedly extended such measures depending on the severity of the perceived threat since May 3. The government may further extend the duration or expand the existing measures to encompass additional areas if significant violence occurs.

In recent weeks, demonstrations have materialized over the release of a video recording of a sexual assault incident that occurred on May 4; organizers seek to demand the arrest of all the perpetrators involved in the incident, in addition to other concessions. Other related protests have sporadically occurred in Manipur. Although activists have not announced plans for such gatherings, additional demonstrations of varying types are likely over the coming weeks. Typical tactics include sit-ins, shutdown strikes, street marches, and disruptive roadblocks along interstate highways, such as National Highway 2. Potential gathering sites consist of residences of local politicians, security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares.

Officials have deployed nearly 40,000 security personnel across the state. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, batons, and tear gas, to disperse any protests that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, attacks, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.

Context

On May 3, significant clashes first broke out in Churachandpur District during a rally by the All Tribal Students' Union of Manipur (ATSUM) as a part of statewide demonstrations denouncing the government's proposal to award the nontribal Meitei group - that enjoys a majority in the state - the Scheduled Tribes (ST) designation. The ST designation provides political, educational, and employment privileges.

Advice

Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near Manipur State. Keep away from locations where security personnel appear to be deploying. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, deliveries, and road status. Do not check out of accommodation before confirming onward travel. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks. Heed instructions from authorities.