17 Oct 2024 | 10:30 AM UTC
India: Rallies, tight security likely to intensify in Manipur through late October amid renewed restrictions /update 30
Rallies, increased security likely to intensify in Manipur, India, through late October amid renewed measures. Exercise increased caution.
Recurring rallies, tight security measures, and associated disruptions are likely to persist in Manipur State through late October. Renewed protest campaigns and clashes between activists and security forces have escalated in several parts of the state as of Oct. 17, including near marketplaces and government buildings, such as a crowd storming into a police station and looting arms in Ukhrul on Oct. 3. Drone attacks continue to occur across the state, with the National Investigation Agency (NIA) along with the Manipur Police investigating the origin of these attacks on Oct. 17.
Officials are imposing a curfew in the Churachandpur District, South West of Imphal, until 08:00 Oct. 18, with an indefinite curfew in Imphal East and West districts from 20:00-05:00. Public gatherings of five or more people have been banned in Bishnupur, Kakching, and Thoubal. Essential services are exempt from the existing security measures.
Activists will likely continue to stage sporadic protests across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have previously disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.
Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. The government has deployed paramilitary forces along various state highways to ensure unimpeded transport movement in Manipur.
Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.
Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near Manipur. Keep away from locations where security personnel appear to be deploying. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, deliveries, and road status. Do not check out of accommodations before confirming onward travel. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed instructions from authorities.
Since May 2023, ethnic conflict between the Kuki and Meitei communities has resulted in widespread violence, including armed clashes, gunfire, arson, and rioting across various locations in Manipur. The violence began on May 3 following a court order that directed the state government to consider extending official tribal status to the Meitei community, which triggered protests by the Kuki community. Activists are denouncing a series of drone and rocket attacks by suspected Kuki militants in Bishnupur and Imphal West District in early September, which marks a significant shift in tactics and a potential escalation in the ongoing conflict. Members of the Legislative Assembly from Meitei and Kuki communities met for peace talks in New Delhi on Oct. 15. However, there are no reports on whether the talks were successful. Official figures indicate that the violence has resulted in over 220 deaths, 1,500 injuries, and the displacement of more than 60,000 locals.
