Russia: Heightened security likely in major cities in west of country following Aug. 23 crash of private aircraft carrying Wagner Group leader

Event

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in major cities in western Russia over the coming days following the Aug. 23 crash of a private aircraft carrying founder of the PMC Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin and several of the organization's commanders, including his deputy Dmitry Utkin. The Embraer Legacy went down near the town of Kuzhenkino in Tver Oblast while en route from Moscow to Saint Petersburg; all 10 persons on board reportedly died in the crash. Although there was initial speculation that Prigozhin may, in fact, have been on a second aircraft that safely turned back and landed at Moscow's Ostafyevo Airport (OSF) following the crash, both the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) and sources within the Wagner Group subsequently confirmed that he is among the dead. The cause of the incident was not immediately clear, with some sources asserting that the crash was an accident and others alleging that the aircraft was shot down by Russian air defense forces.

The Russian government will almost certainly maintain elevated security, particularly in major cities such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg, as a precaution until it becomes clear what the reaction to the incident and the news of Prigozhin's death may be. Demonstrations are possible in urban areas; authorities may implement movement restrictions in locations where large gatherings materialize. Transport disruptions are possible in areas subject to heightened security measures. Some form of action by fighters employed by the Wagner Group is particularly likely if the Kremlin is unable to dispel rumors of a shoot-down.

Context

Prigozhin was the head of the Wagner Group, a private military company that claims to employ over 20,000 men under arms at locations worldwide. He was a longtime confidant of President Vladimir Putin before launching an unsuccessful mutiny June 23-24, during the course of which Wagner forces fighting in Ukraine abandoned the line and advanced hundreds of miles into Russia to protest the actions of the Russian high command. Although he was reported to have agreed to enter exile, Prigozhin has been seen in public in Russia multiple times following the attempted march on Moscow.

Advice

Exercise increased caution and situational awareness if operating in major cities in western Russia until the reaction to Prigozhin's death becomes clear. Allow additional time for travel due to likely heightened security. Carry proper identification documents at all times; remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by security personnel. Strictly follow all instructions from law enforcement officers.