Yemen: Protests and clashes likely in Aden through early September /update 1

Event

Further protests and clashes denouncing deteriorating living conditions and power outages are likely in Aden through early September. On Aug. 28, protesters gathered near Mansoura Square. UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces fired upon demonstrators near Nabd al-Hayat clinic close to the square, resulting in civilian injuries; a passenger bus was reportedly also fired upon. This incident led to clashes.

In recent days, there have been instances of protesters burning tires and obstructing road traffic in the Al-Mansoura, Sheikh Othman, and Khormaksar districts, with unconfirmed reports suggesting security forces have used live ammunition to disperse protests.

Related demonstrations cannot be ruled out in Aden or elsewhere over the coming days. Transport and business disruptions are possible in areas subject to protest activity. Security forces will likely continue to forcibly disperse additional demonstrators in the affected areas.

Context

Southern Yemen has long been afflicted by frequent power, water, and fuel shortages; however, a long-term depreciation of the Yemeni riyal in government-held areas has led to rising inflation and worsening social discontent. The basic drivers of the crisis in the south include a population largely dependent on foreign aid, subsidized basic commodities such as fuel, a near-total reliance on imported goods, the existence of two rival economic systems, uncontrolled inflation, and a foreign exchange crisis. The UN estimates over 80 percent of Yemen's population of 28 million is reliant on some form of humanitarian assistance. Widespread underdevelopment, in addition to the large-scale destruction of infrastructure as a result of the country's civil war, has only exacerbated the south’s socio-economic crisis.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the possibility of clashes. Monitor local media for details concerning protest activity; organizers may not announce plans in advance. Do not attempt to bypass roadblocks; wait for local authorities to remove them. Heed instructions from authorities. Avoid travel at night.