Bangladesh: Nationwide protest campaigns likely to continue through at least late October /update 5

Event

Several political parties are likely to continue their ongoing series of protest campaigns through at least late October. Organizers are demanding various political concessions and are mobilizing grassroots-level support ahead of the upcoming general election slated to occur by January 2024. As of Sept. 27, the ruling Awami League (AL) party and primary opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have announced the following events:

• Sept. 28: AL leaders will organize a mass nationwide public prayer program, including a gathering at the AL party headquarters along Bangabandhu Avenue in Dhaka.

• Sept. 29: BNP demonstrators to hold a women's rally in Dhaka. Additionally, the AL will host a mass gathering at the Bangabandhu International Conference Center.

• Sept. 30: BNP activists to reportedly gather in Chattogram via Comilla and Feni, Chattogram Division; organizers also plan to hold a mass workers' convention in Dhaka. The AL will hold a rally outside the south gate of the Baitul Mukarram National Mosque at 14:30.

• Oct. 1: BNP activists to organize a march from Mymensingh to Kishoreganj in Mymenshingh Division.

• Oct. 2: BNP organizers plan to hold a farmers' rally in Dhaka.

• Oct. 3: BNP supporters to organize marches in Chattogram, Cumilla, Feni, and Mirsharai in Chattogram Division.

• Oct. 4: AL activists to hold a rally in Mirsharai, Chattogram Division, at 14:30.

• Oct. 5: BNP activists plan to carry out a protest march from Cumilla to Chattogram, where a final rally will occur; the routes reportedly include Chattogram, Cumilla, Feni, and Mirsharai.

BNP leaders have previously staged protest campaigns to demand the resignation of the current administration and that the general election be held under a neutral caretaker government. As a part of their action, BNP activists have threatened to escalate their campaign by staging sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office buildings. As of Sept. 27, AL leaders have indicated plans to hold regular gatherings of varying types throughout October at undisclosed locations.

Further diverse gatherings by other political groups, such as the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, are highly likely over the coming days. Various activists may also arrange counterdemonstrations with little-to-no notice during any scheduled political gatherings. Potential gathering sites include political party offices and police stations, as well as prominent government buildings, museums, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, and thoroughfares. While participation will probably vary by locale and sponsoring political group, previous events have attracted very large crowds. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions at short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement restrictions.

Authorities will almost certainly monitor any such rallies and may move to disperse overly disruptive crowds. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of rival political camps, cannot be ruled out. Officials may conduct mass arrests and/or resort to the use of force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to any security incidents. Demonstrators could march along and/or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Associated localized business disruptions are possible.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Allow additional travel time near gathering sites. Plan accordingly for possible localized business disruptions. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed all official transport and security advisories.